NFL Picks and Predictions – Page 184

Fantasy football: Where to draft Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris

Analyzing Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris’ 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

One of the worst-kept secrets in the 2021 NFL draft was that if Alabama running back Najee Harris was still on the board at No. 24, the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to take him. He came in with the promise of competing for the starting job and took over the position in a huge way.

Below, we look at Najee Harris‘ 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Harris responded with more than 300 carries, 74 receptions and 10 touchdowns, piling up fantasy points along the way and quickly making the climb to the elite RB1 must-have players.

Najee Harris’ ADP: 9.88

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Harris is a bona fide 1st-round fantasy draft pick and brings what is required of high-end backs — a heavy workload in the backfield and opportunities as a receiver. In 17 games, Harris had 381 touches, accounted for 1,667 yards and scored 10 TDs — everything you look for in a RB1.

Harris’ ADP ranks him as the 5th running back, narrowly behind Austin Ekeler (Los Angeles Chargers) with an ADP at 6.80 and Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) at 8.42 and narrowly ahead of Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) at 10.15.

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Najee Harris’ 2021 stats

Games: 17

Carries | rushing yards: 307 | 1,200

Rushing touchdowns: 7

Receptions | receiving yards: 74 | 467

Receiving touchdowns: 3

Where should you draft Harris?

It could be argued that much of Harris’ production as a receiver was because retired QB Ben Roethlisberger was simply dumping off the ball on check-down passes to avoid sacks. But as a fantasy player, you don’t care as long as you get a point for every pass he catches.

How dominant is Harris in Pittsburgh’s offense? The No. 2 rusher was Benny Snell and he had just 36 carries for less than 100 yards and 3rd on the team in rushing was wide receiver Chase Claypool. The Steelers are willing to let Harris be the entire running game and he’s on the field when they’re throwing as well. Oh yeah, and he finished 2nd on the team in receptions.

A case could be made that Harris could be as high as No. 3 on the draft list for running backs, given injuries to Ekeler, Henry and Cook that give them mild red flags. As high as his ADP is, you can’t go wrong with a guy who is being handed the offensive baton as the offense tries to figure out if it’s better off with Mitchell Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett. Snap him up if you get the chance.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper

Analyzing Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

When he signed a 5-year, $100 million contract extension with the Dallas Cowboys in 2020, it looked as though wide receiver Amari Cooper was going to be in Big D for the foreseeable future. So it came as a surprise when Cooper was traded to the Cleveland Browns, where he comes in with the expectation of being the No. 1 receiver.

Below we look at Amari Cooper‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

With a new beginning in Cleveland and the eventual return of QB Deshaun Watson — a quarterback capable of posting huge passing numbers — Cooper could become a consistent fantasy football starter despite not being in that category yet.

Amari Cooper’s ADP: 66.09

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

For the 1st time in his career, Cooper is viewed as a mid-round fantasy receiver and a WR3, which is something to note. Those who are drafting Cooper aren’t counting on him to be a weekly starter in their fantasy lineups.

Cooper finds himself slotted in among primarily No. 2 receivers or those with a lot of offensive questions. His ADP falls behind Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings) at 64.88 and Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at 65.86 and slightly ahead of Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals) at 68.74 and Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears) at 69.61.

With such a tight clustering of picks, it seems clear that the 7th round of fantasy drafts is going to include a lot of wide receivers.

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Amari Cooper’s 2021 stats

Games: 15

Receptions | targets: 68 | 104

Receiving yards: 865

Receiving touchdowns: 8

Where should you draft Cooper?

I’ve never been a big fan of Cooper as a fantasy player. It seemed like so much of his production was the result of 3 or 4 huge games surrounded by a half-dozen pedestrian games and 3 or 4 games with almost nothing.

However, that was when Cooper was being drafted as a WR1 or WR2. In his current ADP positioning (WR28) it puts him a low-end WR3 in 10-player leagues and mid-WR3 in 12-player leagues.

In 7 NFL seasons, Cooper has averaged 74 catches for 1,011 yards and 7 touchdowns. His durability has never been questioned — he’s missed only 4 games in 7 years. Those annual numbers as a presumptive fantasy starter are too low. For a plug-and-play WR3, those are outstanding. Thielen has a “red zone” rapport that makes him hard to jump and, if Godwin comes back 100 percent, he’s hard to move over either.

At this position, if Cooper is still on the board when you’re looking for a WR3, jump on him. For the 1st time in a long time he’s a value pick.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson

Analyzing Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson left last season on a high note after making the 2021 NFL Top 100 list. He was the 8th overall draft pick in 2019, and this should be the best Lions team he has been on.

QB Jared Goff will be leading the way, and he’ll have ample threats, which should also exacerbate the play of Hockenson this season.

Below, we look at T.J. Hockenson’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Hockenson should be seen as a top-5 tight end, but the concerns around the Lions offense are still very alive. He ranked 15th in the NFL in fantasy points (PPR) among tight ends, playing in 12 games.

T.J. Hockenson’s ADP: 76.53

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Hockenson has an ADP of 76.53 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the 7th round of the draft in 12-team leagues. His teammates D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown rank above him.

Among tight ends, Hockenson’s ADP puts him 7th at the position, behind the likes of Darren Waller (Las Vegas Raiders), George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) and Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys), and slightly ahead of Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) and Zach Ertz (Arizona Cardinals).

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T.J. Hockenson’s 2021 stats

Games: 12

Receptions | targets: 61 | 83

Receiving yards: 583

Receiving touchdowns: 4

Where should you draft Hockenson?

At 6-foot-5, Hockenson was supposed to have a breakout season as the Lions’ top threat last year. It didn’t happen as he struggled to keep up with his 2020 numbers.

Another year of the Goff-coach Dan Campbell leadership along with additional threats like WR Jameson Williams should help Hockenson’s value. Detroit, with 3 top-50 picks, should be drastically improved this season.

At the very least, that should mean more targets for Hockenson as possessions are extended. Hockenson’s ADP is relatively low here, and having him as a mid-tier tight end with a solid upside is a good risk.

I would be surprised if Hockenson doesn’t see triple digits of targets, and with an increasing catch rate in each of his 3 seasons in the league, he could be primed for his best year yet.

Given he’s a top option in the offense, his floor, assuming he doesn’t get injured, is relatively high as well. Hockenson is a strong pick in the 7th round and is correctly being drafted with the potential risk factored in.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

Analyzing Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones’ 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones has a bright future ahead as he looks to the 2022 NFL season. After only 6 seasons with the Packers, Jones is quickly moving up the franchise’s all-time rushing list.

He already ranks in the Packers’ top 5 with 4,163 yards and is closing in on Tony Canadeo and John Brockington, who are 4th and 3rd respectively on the list.

Below, we look at Aaron Jones‘ 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Jones will split some of the snaps with 3rd-year RB AJ Dillon but is fully expected to be the lead back in Green Bay and is also active in the pass-catching game.

Aaron Jones’ ADP: 22.77

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Jones has an ADP of 22.77 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the late 2nd round of the draft. He has the highest ADP on the Green Bay roster.

Among running backs, Jones’ ADP puts him 11th at the position, behind the likes of Saquon Barkley (New York Giants), Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns), and D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions) and slightly ahead of Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints), and Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos).

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Aaron Jones’ 2021 stats

Games: 15

Carries | rushing yards: 171 | 799

Rushing touchdowns: 4

Receptions | receiving yards: 52 | 391

Receiving touchdowns: 6

Where should you draft Jones?

Jones’ fantasy value should almost get a boost from Dillon’s involvement. With Davante Adams no longer in Green Bay (now with Las Vegas), it seems likely the team relies more on the skill set of Jones.

Jones will be the lead back and likely eat up a majority of the snaps. He played in 58% of the offensive snaps last season. I would expect that to be relatively similar to that figure.

The loss of Adams may help Jones’ value because he’ll be a more primary option for star QB Aaron Rodgers. Jones had 6 receiving touchdowns and 52 receptions on 65 targets a season ago. Those should only be expected to go up this season without Adams.

Jones is appropriately placed after Chubb and Swift, but his consistency and the Packers offense at large make him a valuable option. I would take Jones comfortable in the mid-2nd round and feel elated if he drops past 22.

He could hover around the 16-20 mark in PPR formats.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Analyzing Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers’ 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

After a juicy offseason that swirled around a potential retirement, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will be back on the field for the 2022 season. No one really knew what to expect from Rodgers, but he’s back.

The 4-time MVP will make an appearance for his 17th season.

Below, we look at Aaron Rodgers‘ 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him for his possible farewell season.

Rodgers has garnered an extensive resume over his years. Despite his age, he still tallied numerous honors in the 2021 season. Rodgers was named Most Valuable Player by the AP and by the PFWA.

Aaron Rodgers’ ADP: 70.39

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Rodgers has an ADP of 70.39 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the range of the late 5th to early 6th round. His ADP is lower than his teammate Aaron Jones (20.77), though.

Among quarterbacks, Rodgers’ ADP puts him 11th at the position, behind the likes of Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos), and Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys), and slightly ahead of Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers), Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams), and Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders).

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Aaron Rodgers’ 2021 stats:

Games: 16

Passing yards: 4,115

Completions | attempts: 366 | 531

Passing touchdowns: 37

Interceptions: 4

Carries | rushing yards: 33 | 101

Rushing touchdowns: 3

Where should you draft Rodgers?

Rodgers’ fantasy value, by most people’s expectations, will take a hit without WR Davante Adams (now with the Raiders). The veteran QB’s weapons aren’t what they used to be, but he’s done more with less.

Rodgers had a terrific season last year and is a great option in this elite 2nd tier of quarterbacks. Rodgers ranked 6th in fantasy points and 7th in fantasy points per game among QBs with more than 14 games played.

The loss of Adams will hurt, but the Packers did get WR Sammy Watkins, have Rodgers’ old teammate WR Randall Cobb and took WR Christian Watson in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

The options will be there, and the MVP will get his numbers. I would take Rodgers above Wilson and certainly above Lance and Carr. He’s consistently been one of the best players in the NFL.

Draft Rodgers comfortable in the early-7th, late-6th round as quarterbacks start to get nabbed across the board in that range.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

Analyzing Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has been a consistent force for the last 3 seasons. Cook found himself a place in the NFL Top 100 for the 2nd consecutive season, and in the Pro Bowl for 3rd straight time.

Below, we look at Dalvin Cook‘s 2022, fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Cook will enter his 6th season in the NFL. Overall, he has improved with age and has oddly become more durable. He should get a boost this season with a revised offense.

Though the running back competition is stiff, Cook looks to outshine the others as the Vikings forge ahead through the 2022 season.

Dalvin Cook’s ADP: 10.55

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Cook has an ADP of 10.55 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the 1st range of the draft. Cook is the highest-ranking member of the Vikings.

Among running backs Cook’s ADP puts him 6th at the position, behind the likes of Austin Ekeler (Los Angeles Chargers), Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans), and Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers), and slightly ahead of Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals), D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions), and Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns).

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Dalvin Cook’s 2021 stats

Games: 13

Carries | rushing yards: 249 | 1,159

Rushing touchdowns: 6

Receptions | receiving yards: 34 | 224

Receiving touchdowns: 0

Where should you draft Cook?

The Vikings added a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell, and he’s expected to make a drastic difference in the offensive efficiency in an underwhelming yet overly talented core.

He’s already received praise from teammate Justin Jefferson as the star receiver noted the offense will be “less predictable.”

That should only mean more efficient production from Cook. The veteran is primed for a breakout season and is coming off a solid 2021 campaign.

He’s topped 100 yards in 3 straight seasons, playing only 13 games last season yet going for 1,159 yards. Cook has also had over 45 targets in 4 straight seasons, so he does have a role as a pass catcher.

Cook averaged the 9th-most fantasy points per game among backs that played at least 10 games. Having played over 13 in 3 straight seasons, the consistency has been there as well.

He’s a competent receiver, a solid runner, and primed for success in a new system. All things point to Cook being a strong top-10 pick. Feel free to reach for him into the 6-8 range.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Cleveland Browns RB Kareem Hunt

Analyzing Cleveland Browns RB Kareem Hunt’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

It isn’t very often that the No. 2 guy in 2-back system makes a trade demand, but that’s exactly what Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt did recently — a request quickly denied by the Browns front office.

Below, we look at Kareem Hunt‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position and where you should draft him.

Hunt may never relive his rookie season when he led the NFL in rushing with 1,327 yards while playing in Kansas City. However, in the mold of great tandems like Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott, the Browns have found a way to solidify roles for Hunt and Nick Chubb so that neither is a handcuff to the other. They can coexist in the same backfield and each put up good numbers.

Kareem Hunt’s ADP: 92.20

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)

Hunt is in the position where you find the lowest rated starters and the highest rated No. 2 guys. His ADP at 92.20 is barely behind a pair of 2021 starters — Cordarrelle Patterson (Atlanta Falcons) at 90.29 and Rashaad Penny (Seattle Seahawks) at 90.44 — and barely ahead of Chase Edmonds (Miami Dolphins) at 93.47.

Hunt is a role player who averages 12-15 touches a game — many more than the average No. 2 guy or change-of-pace back. It’s what he does with those touches that make him a dangerous home run hitter out of the backfield capable of taking any play to the house when he gets in the open field.

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Kareem Hunt’s 2021 stats

Games: 8

Carries | rushing yards: 78 | 386

Rushing touchdowns: 5

Receptions | receiving yards: 22 | 174

Receiving touchdowns: 0

Where should you draft Hunt?

There are a couple of things going against Hunt. He is “in the system” with the NFL due to previous suspensions and, as such, if he does anything that gets him back in the NFL’s bad graces, he would be subject to a longer suspension.

The other issue is that he is disgruntled and wants to get paid. The Browns have clearly told him no and he sees the handwriting on the wall that this may be his last year in Cleveland much like Baker Mayfield did last year.

But that isn’t always a bad thing. A player looking to get a new contract is motivated to show the other 31 teams what he can do and Hunt has the ability to make a difference. Even though he is ranked behind the last of the presumptive starters, while I wouldn’t lower his ADP that much, I would take him before either Patterson or Penny.

Although his sensational rookie numbers are out of reach, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he replicated his 2020 numbers (his only full season in Cleveland) when he rushed 198 times for 841 yards, caught 38 passes for 304 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. Those aren’t handcuff numbers. In larger leagues, you could see fantasy owners play both Chubb and Hunt in the same game.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb

Analyzing Cleveland Browns Nick Chubb’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

With most fantasy football scoring systems involving a point per reception (PPR), the value of players like Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb take a hit, because in his first 4 NFL seasons, he has never been used extensively in the pass game.

Below, we look at Nick Chubb‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where should draft him.

Chubb is viewed as a 1-trick pony, but it’s a really good trick. He has rushed for more than 1,000 yards in the last 3 seasons and the only year he didn’t was his rookie season when he ran for 996 yards.

Nick Chubb’s ADP: 19.79

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

In 42 games played in the last 3 seasons, Chubb has averaged 91 rushing yards a game, but it his lack of use as a receiver — just 72 receptions and 3 touchdown in that same span — that has his value dropping him to the bottom end of the RB1 category.

His ADP of 19.79 puts him in the pack of 2nd round fantasy draft picks. He is slightly behind Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals) with an ADP at 14.61, and D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions) at 17.45 and is slightly ahead of Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) at 20.67 and Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers) at 22.27.

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Nick Chubb’s 2021 stats

Games: 14

Carries | rushing yards: 228 | 1,259

Rushing touchdowns: 8

Receptions | receiving yards: 20 | 174

Receiving touchdowns: 1

Where should you draft Chubb?

The PPR component of fantasy leagues is a little overrated in my view with the exception of those at the very top of the draft that get ranked higher because they catch 60 or more passes. Most featured backs don’t get to those types of numbers or, if they do, they’re not a 20-carry-a-game rusher.

Chubb’s use in Cleveland’s offense is similar to what Derrick Henry does in Tennessee. He’s a 2-down back for the most part — Kareem Hunt is the designated receiver in the backfield — but it’s hard to deny the production he gives. Not only does he average more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game, he has averaged 10 touchdowns a year.

PPR purists (if there is such a thing) may disagree, but I would rank Chubb ahead of Mixon and Swift, making him a value if he is still on the board where his ADP has him coming off.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft New York Jets QB Zach Wilson

Analyzing New York Jets QB Zach Wilson’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

New York Jets QB Zach Wilson heads into his 2nd professional season in 2022, and he is expected to take a big step forward. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft could get off to a slow start, however.

Below, we look at Zach Wilson‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Wilson suffered a torn meniscus and bone bruise in the 1st quarter of the team’s Aug. 12 preseason opener against the Philadelphia Eagles. As a result, he will miss 2 to 4 weeks, and is a question mark for the regular-season opener, clouding his fantasy future a bit.

Wilson passed for 2,334 yards, 9 TD and 11 INT in 13 games last season, completing just 55.6% of his pass attempts. He was also on his back a lot, getting sacked 44 times, or an average of more than 3 times per game.

The good news for Wilson is that the team brought in WR Garrett Wilson, arguably the top wide receiver available in the 2022 NFL Draft, snagged free agent TE C.J. Uzomah, upgraded the run game significantly with the drafting of RB Breece Hall and spent big money to grab T Laken Tomlinson on a 3-year deal.

Zach Wilson’s ADP: 127.63

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Wilson’s ADP (in redraft leagues) means he will likely be available off the waiver wire in a majority of leagues. At this point he is looking like a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3, and the early preseason injury and questionable status for the regular-season opener certainly doesn’t help his fantasy cause.

In keeper league drafts his ADP is a tick better at 103.83, but he is still well down the line and it won’t take a major investment if you’re rather bullish on him.

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Zach Wilson’s 2021 stats

Games: 13

Passing yards: 2,334

Completions | attempts: 213 | 383

Passing touchdowns: 9

Interceptions: 11

Carries | rushing yards: 29 | 185

Rushing touchdowns: 4

Where should you draft Wilson?

In redraft leagues the answer to the above question is rather simple – you shouldn’t. Even in leagues requiring 2 starting signal callers, it’s unlikely Wilson will be drafted. If so, he’ll be nothing more than a late-round pick in those formats as a reserve.

Toss in the fact he enters the season with an injury, coming off an August arthroscopy, he is a huge question mark. Fantasy managers do not like uncertainty heading into a new season, even from a tried and true veteran. Wilson is none of those things, and while he has tremendous upside, it’s probably best to either let him be someone else’s headache, or snag him off the waiver wire once he starts to get rolling well into September.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Miami Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki

Analyzing Miami Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki has displayed consistent improvement in his 4 NFL seasons but has yet to make the jump to the next level of tight ends — something the Miami coaching staff thinks will change with a new-look offense.

Below we look at Mike Gesicki‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Gesicki has improved in production in every season, both in receptions (22-51-53-73) and receiving yards (202-570-703-780). With expectations high for Miami’s offense this season, Gesicki is expected to once again push the envelope and continue improving his numbers.

Mike Gesicki’s ADP: 112.89

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Despite being viewed as a low-end TE1 or very high-end TE2, his ADP lands him in the 10th to 12th round of drafts (depending on league size). In most drafts, Gesicki has been landing as the 11th or 12th TE coming off draft boards.

After the run on the elite tight ends has ended, the next group of TEs are going approximately 1 per round. Gesicki finds himself behind Zach Ertz (Arizona Cardinals) with an ADP at 99.50 and Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) at 104.45 and ahead of Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers) at 120.45 and Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears) at 128.75.

For those willing to hold off on getting their 1st tight end on draft day, the competition for players like Gesicki will drop because the analysis shows us that once the 1st run on tight ends slows down, owners won’t be double-dipping on the position that invested in early.

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Mike Gesicki’s 2021 stats

Games: 17

Receptions | targets: 73 | 112

Receiving yards: 780

Receiving touchdowns: 2

Where should you draft Gesicki?

Gesicki finds himself in an interesting spot when it comes to what his role will be in Miami’s offense. The arrival of WR Tyreek Hill opens up the deep passing game and pulls safeties out of the middle of the field. The volume of short passes caught by WR Jaylen Waddle forces defenders to move laterally to keep coverage on him and will give QB Tua Tagovailoa more viable options on every pass play.

The result of the skill set of Hill and Waddle is that there will be more plays that Gesicki will be locked 1-on-1 going down the seam with a linebacker in coverage. The mere presence of Hill is going to alter how defenses guard receivers and Gesicki will get more opportunities for big plays.

His lack of consistent scoring production is concerning (just 13 touchdowns in 64 career games), but it seems there is a clearly defined demarcation line associated with Gesicki — the clear TE1 players taken before him and the clear TE2 players taken after him. His value goes up the deeper into the draft you get.