Fantasy football player analysis tips and advice – Page 16

Is there any fantasy football value among Cowboys tight ends?

What will life after Dalton Schultz look like among Dallas’ tight ends?

On the heels of a 78-808-8 effort in 2021, the Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Dalton Schultz, who looked to be emerging as a top-tier, pass-catching tight end. Schultz reportedly spurned a three-year extension and played out the tag, hauling in 57 passes for 577 yards and five TDs over 15 appearances last season. He then ended up settling for a one-year deal with the Houston Texans in March.

Schultz’s departure creates a camp battle between a pair of returning options in Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot, and rookie Luke Schoonmaker. Let’s look at all three players to see which one(s), if any, deserve fantasy consideration.

Does the Seahawks offense have room for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

Does the Seahawks offense has room for JSN to produce for fantasy football in 2023.

Despite having a solid wide receiver tandem in the form of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seattle Seahawks decided to use the No. 20 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft on Ohio State product Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Arguably the top receiving prospect in this rookie class, Smith-Njigba will be competing for targets with a strong duo ahead of him on the depth chart. His arrival raises the question: Is there enough room in the Seahawks offense for the rookie to be fantasy relevant?

First, we must look at the depth chart. Metcalf is still right in his prime at 25 years old, while Lockett turns 31 years old in September. They’ve become one of the most consistent tandems in the league since 2019, recording at least 900 yards during that span — Lockett has surpassed 1,000 in each of those seasons.

What’s more, they have a stranglehold on the target share within the offense. In 2022, they posted a combined target share of 48.2% with Metcalf at 25.5% and Lockett at 22.7%. The next closest player was tight end Noah Fant (11.4%).

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So, while Metcalf and Lockett are dominating the targets, an argument can be made that a first-round talent like Smith-Njigba easily slides into third in the pecking order. Having Geno Smith at quarterback offers stability, but his lack of high-end weekly fantasy finishes may limit the rookie’s ceiling.

Next, we need to look at Smith-Njigba himself. He’s a crafty route runner with reliable hands and exceptional change-of-direction skills. He may not be a true burner, but he understands the nuances of route running and still provides enough juice after the catch.

It’s likely Smith-Njigba’s role will begin as a slot receiver, provided he fends off competition from Dee Eskridge. That’s where he played the majority of his snaps at Ohio State. However, it’s not outlandish to believe his polish as a route runner can lead to a role as a flanker type in the future. But with Metcalf and Lockett fully entrenched ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s difficult to imagine all three wideouts being on the field together all the time.

Draft capital is important to note here as well. Since 2011, there have been 42 wide receivers drafted in the first round who appeared in at least 10 games during their rookie seasons. Of those 42, there were 15 rookies who averaged at least 12.5 PPR points per game, which is right around the WR2 (top-24) mark for fantasy purposes. Only seven of those 42 have averaged more than 15.0 PPR points per game in Year 1.

Fantasy football outlook

Smith-Njigba is an electric talent who does possess some upside in Year 1. He’s NFL-ready as a slot receiver, but the tandem of Metcalf and Lockett will likely limit his playing time and production early on. However, if one of them suffers an injury, it opens the door for a much higher ceiling.

Considering his draft capital, talent and the Seahawks depth chart, Smith-Njigba should have a role right away. It may be slow to start the season, but the rookie can be viewed as a WR3 option in fantasy with some upside if an injury befalls Metcalf or Lockett.

Is Kyler Murray draftable in fantasy football leagues?

Will a lengthy rehab rob Murray of his trademark athleticism in 2023?

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is one of the more interesting players who will have fantasy managers questioning the level of investment to make in him for 2023. Not only is he coming of a torn ACL suffered on Dec. 12, 2022, the Cardinals stunned the football world in May by releasing DeAndre Hopkins – receiving no compensation in the form of players or draft picks and swallowing a huge dead-cap hit that will limit what the team can do in an attempt to bring in veteran playmakers to make up for the loss.

It’s hard to dismiss the value Murray brought as a dual passing-rushing threat in his 57 career NFL starts, but there have been red flags along the way that should have some wary of having him on their fantasy rosters.

The clearest sign of trouble came when the Cardinals decided to make a franchise-shifting investment in Murray – signing him to a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension with $160 million in guarantees. It was one of the clauses in the deal that raised eyebrows – a contractual requirement for Murray to be at the facility doing off-field study with the coaching staff. The clear implication was that Murray has never been a “first guy in the building, last guy out” type of player. While Arizona ultimately removed the clause, one has to wonder about his willingness to put in the extra effort to relentlessly rehab to get back on the field when that hasn’t been his M.O.

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Even before the injury, Murray had a tendency to start strong in terms of fantasy scoring and team success, only to fade as the season came to a close – when his value to a fantasy team is needed most. In 2021, the Cardinals started out 7-0 and looked primed to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC with Murray as an MVP frontrunner, only to lose five of their last seven games and make a quick playoff exit.

Currently, it’s believed that Murray won’t be ready for the start of the season and may not return until midseason. The question that needs to be asked is what type of investment do you make in a player who is guaranteed to miss some time when there are other available options without that baggage?

Fantasy football outlook

I was leery of Murray prior to his ACL injury. The running that made him a star early in his career seemed to be more tempered over the last two seasons, and dropping production as a rusher made his points-per-game decline even more pronounced.

At this point, I would struggle to even have Murray at the end of the QB2 rankings, because you bring him to your roster with many more questions than answers. When there are healthy young quarterbacks with upside potential, like Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett and Bryce Young, in the same ranking tier, roll the dice on one of them rather than take Murray due to not knowing when he will be back and how he will fare after losing the top weapons that made him a star (Hopkins and Christian Kirk) over the last two years. Let someone else take the risk of having a dead roster spot for half a season or more in conventional 2023 leagues, though he could be worthy of a No. 3 spot in best-ball settings.

The Falcons’ improving offense is much more than Bijan Robinson

Look to the Falcons for a team stocked with fantasy players on the rise.

Fantasy drafts this summer are paying major respect to a running back that hasn’t played a down in the NFL and mans a position that’s been greatly devalued in recent years. That’s not to say that Bijan Robinson isn’t worth his current average draft spot as the No. 4 fantasy running back or he won’t end up as the No. 1 as several Twitter-fueled fans suggest.

Matt Forte, Priest Holmes, and Saquon Barkley all logged a No. 1 in their first seasons. Arian Foster, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Jonathan Taylor, Le’Veon Bell, and Tiki Barber all led the position in their second year. It doesn’t take long and in defense of Robinson, he’s been most likened to Barkley as the “once in a generation” player that seemingly comes around every couple of years.

The Falcons’ rushing schedule is one of the toughest and is worse at the start of the year. But the offensive line is much improved, Robinson is intended to contribute equally as a receiver, and he’s going to cost dearly if you intend on seeing him in your starting lineup.

Robinson generated the hype and adoration of a top rookie running back. He’s spent much of the offseason as a trending topic on Twitter just because everyone wants to discuss him. Your league mates will want the exciting Texas rookie but only one team gets to overpay for him.

But he’s not the only Falcon, and any success that he creates will also feed into better stats for the rest of the fantasy players in Atlanta. Robinson may have yet to take a regular-season snap, but he’s already overshadowed the rest of the offense that hasn’t generated such unbridled optimism despite key players entering the second or third NFL season.

Fantasy Football: Exploring the release of Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

What does the star back’s release mean for fantasy football purposes?

In a long-awaited move, the Minnesota Vikings released standout running back Dalvin Cook, meaning he’s free to sign with any team of his choosing.

The release immediately elevates veteran backup Alexander Mattison into the starting lineup and opens the door for one of several packs — perhaps one of whom not currently on the roster — to slide into the top reserve role.

Mattison started his NFL career by averaging 4.55 yards per attempt over 196 carries spread over 26 games in the first two seasons. He filled in respectably a few times for the oft-injured Cook, though Mattison himself missed time in each of his first three seasons, which should be concerning when considering he was a backup. The Boise Stater has shown capable as a receiver out of the backfield, especially in 2021 when Mattison caught 32 of 39 looks for 228 yards and a score. He’s not quite the same caliber receiver of Cook, and it will be interesting to see if that’s the area in which Minnesota opts to spell him most frequently.

Second-year back Ty Chandler is an excellent receiver and should make a strong case for the No. 2 role. The 2022 fifth-rounder rushed only six times for a mere 20 yards last year, and he lacks open-field movement traits. As a positive, however, a blazing 4.38-second 40 time puts Chandler in the mix for two-down, change-of-pace work in relief of the much slower Mattison.

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The other two existing backs on the roster are return man Kene Nwangwu and seventh-round rookie DeWayne McBride. The latter has practically no collegiate experience as a receiving outlet, and his likeliest role in the pros will be as a direct, two-down replacement should Mattison miss time. At 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, McBride comes with average speed but has proven himself as a steady, productive rusher.

Nwangwu is more dynamic and could earn the third-down role with a strong offseason. The 2021 fourth-round pick has just 22 total carries and six receptions in this NFL career. He has three kickoffs returned for touchdowns. Few NFL players, regardless of position, rival Nwangwu’s 4.29-second 40 speed, which is even more remarkable given his 6-foot-1, 210-pound frame. As the saying goes, you can’t teach speed, so there’s an opportunity here for the third-year back to emerge as the primary backup.

Of course, there’s also a chance the Vikes turn to the wire and look toward the likes of Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt. Both are proven vets who can serve as third-down backs and also man the No. 2 role should something happen to Mattison. Hunt makes the most sense and has played in similar systems throughout his career. Ezekiel Elliott remains on the market, too, but it’s tough to see him signing given the expected cost in relation to what he brings to the table at this stage of his career. Minnesota also could explore less accomplished backs, such as J.D. McKissic, Kenyan Drake or Dontrell Hilliard.

As for Cook, he’ll look to sign with a contender at this stage of his career. Miami immediately jumps to the top of the list of potential landing spots, and Denver could be in play, too. His brother plays for Buffalo, but it’s already a crowded backfield, making the signing seem much less likely. One interesting spot could be Cincinnati, even with Joe Mixon on the roster. That’s a long shot, but it would protect the Bengals against his looming legal issues. The Kansas City Chiefs are the best spot if he wants a primary role with a contender. Whether there’s mutual interest is to be determined. Dallas could be a viable option, too.

Fantasy football outlook

For now, Mattison is a strong RB2 candidate, which is subject to change pending the team’s approach to the No. 2 spot with regard to his role on third downs. Whoever secures the top backup role will have handcuff value thanks to Mattison’s injury history.

The future for Cook is less certain until he finds a home, but as long as he has the bulk of the RB1 responsibilities, expect no less than No. 2 value in PPR. We’ll revisit the situation upon his signing with a new team.

Will a new OC help Mac Jones get the most from Patriots WRs?

Can Bill O’Brien extract the most out of Mac Jones and Co.?

Coming off a season in which they ranked 20th in passing yardage (208.0 per game) and tied for 19th in passing TDs (19) as part of the 26th-ranked offense, the New England Patriots made moves designed to reinvigorate that side of the ball. On the field, they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki, essentially replacing Jakobi Meyers and Jonnu Smith, and off the field they hired Bill O’Brien to serve as offensive coordinator after using Matt Patricia as the de facto OC in 2022.

Of course, all those moves might be akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic if the Pats can’t get better play out of the quarterback position. Mac Jones regressed last year following an encouraging rookie campaign, and the former first-round pick could face a challenge from Bailey Zappe, who won both of his starts last year when Jones was laid up with an ankle injury. Jones should have the edge, though the team reportedly shopped him before the draft, so we’ll see how it shakes out.

Whether it’s Jones or Zappe, look for a more cohesive, diverse offensive approach from O’Brien, who spent the past two years directing Alabama’s offense following a largely successful seven-year run as the Houston Texans’ head coach. He was the New England OC in 2011 when Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski enjoyed phenomenal success. The question we’ll look to address here, though, is what it will mean for New England’s receivers.

Examining how the Commanders’ QB situation impacts fantasy football plans

How does Washington’s unsettle QB situation impact the offense?

How else to open an article about the Washington Commanders situation under center than with John Madden’s famous musing, if you’ve got two quarterbacks, you have none. Such is life in DC, where the Commanders prepare to enter camp with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett set to battle for QB1.

Clearly, Brissett has a vast advantage in experience, starting 48 games across seven seasons. Compare that to Howell, who made one start as a rookie, which came in Week 18 against Dallas Cowboys backups. Where Howell has the edge is that he could still develop. Despite being a fifth-rounder, Howell was well regarded for his deep-ball accuracy, and he has deceptive athleticism.

It feels like Washington wants Howell to win the job. They’ve talked about his potential, and they chose to bypass a quarterback in this year’s draft. So, if Howell can avoid killer errors and shows growth, he should hold the job. If he falters, Brissett could step in – though even then they might take their lumps with Howell for a shot at USC’s Caleb Williams (or another QB) in next year’s draft.

Although Howell wouldn’t be worth drafting, let’s take a quick look at what his presence might mean for Washington’s other skill players, as well as if Brissett’s insertion would make any difference.

What should fantasy footballers expect from the Carolina receiving corps?

Is there any fantasy worth to be found among Carolina’s new-look receiving corps?

Four quarterbacks attempted passes for the Carolina Panthers last season. None of them return. Leading receiver DJ Moore is also gone, traded to the Chicago Bears as part of the package used to acquire the No. 1 overall pick, which became Alabama’s Bryce Young.

The team hired Frank Reich as their new head coach to help speed Young’s transition from college to the pros, and the hope is he’ll be ready to guide the club in Week 1, though veteran Andy Dalton was signed as an insurance policy.

Add it up and you’re left with a massive overhaul: a new coach, two new QBs, and three of the projected top-five receivers were added in the offseason. That includes a pair of veterans in longtime Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen along with DJ Chark Jr., most recently of the Detroit Lions, and a rookie in the form of second-round pick Jonathan Mingo.

With so many moving parts, it’s a good time to take an initial look at Carolina’s receiver room to gauge what they might have to offer fantasy owners in 2023.

Is Kenny Pickett ready to ascend into fantasy football relevance?

What can fantasy gamers expect from Pickett in Year 2?

The lead up to the start of NFL training camps is when the projection machine starts winding up and everyone wants to be the smartest person in the room by forecasting players to make a gigantic leap from the previous season to the coming year. Few players are in that crystal ball of hype more than Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett.

The first quarterback taken in the 2022 draft, it only took three games before Pickett replaced Mitchell Trubisky as the starter and the post-Ben Roethlisberger era was underway.

It didn’t come easily or smoothly. In his first four starts, Pickett threw seven interceptions and at times looked like he had bust potential. However, the coaching staff didn’t have a quick hook for him and he ended up repaying that trust, winning five of his last six games to help keep the Steelers streak of finishing .500 or better going for an amazing 19th straight year (finishing 9-8 after a 3-7 start).

Pickett played a role in that strong finish, but it wasn’t because of eye-popping fantasy numbers. While he threw only one interception in his final eight games, he finished the season with more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (7). He never had more than one TD pass in any game and had twice as many games with fewer than 200 passing yards (8) than more than 200 (4).

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He didn’t offer much as a runner – after scoring two rushing TDs in his first start, he had just one more the rest of the way and had more than 20 rushing yards in just three games. His rushing production dropped as the season went on – in his final five games he had 20 carries for just 42 yards and no touchdowns.

So why all the hype? Many NFL quarterbacks make their biggest leap from Year 1 to Year 2 after a full offseason with the coaching and training staff. Pickett has done all the right things in that regard. The reason for excitement is that he has all requisite weapons to be effective. He has a significantly upgraded left side of the offensive line from a year ago. He has a strong bell-cow runner in Najee Harris who forces defenses to respect the run and makes play-action more effective. He has a trio of solid wide receivers – emerging star George Pickens, leading receiver Diontae Johnson and veteran acquisition Allen Robinson. Throw in playmaking tight end Pat Freiermuth and it’s understandable why people are jumping on the Pickett bandwagon. But I think it’s a year too soon.

Fantasy football outlook

Pickett isn’t going to make the kind of second-year leap Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence did because the AFC North may be the best top-to-bottom division in the NFL. All of them have solid defenses that can’t be exploited twice a year and games in this division tend to be low-scoring bloodbaths.

Pickett has showed flashes of talent but is a middle of the pack fantasy quarterback. Ask yourself would you rather have a veteran like Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins and their numbers or Pickett? While Pickett has a higher ceiling, for 2023 he’s a low-end QB2. Fantasy owners should hope he won’t have to play more than to cover a bye week.

Does the LA Chargers offense have room for Quentin Johnston?

LA’s offense is rich with talent, but there’s only one football. Will Johnston matter as a rookie?

With a positional depth chart that includes a five-time Pro Bowl selection (Keenan Allen), a former top-10 pick with two 1,000-yard campaigns under his belt (Mike Williams), and a third-year pro coming off a 72-769-3 effort in 2022 (Joshua Palmer), wide receiver didn’t look like a pressing need for the Los Angeles Chargers entering the 2023 NFL Draft. General manager Tom Telesco disagreed.

Telesco decided to use his first-round pick, 22nd overall, on TCU wideout Quentin Johnston, who caught 60 passes for 1,069 yards and six touchdowns as a junior last year. While the pick initially might have raised some eyebrows, especially given LA’s glaring issues running the ball and stopping the run, a closer look shows a potentially strong fit.

Let’s start with the holdovers. Long considered one of the NFL’s best route runners, Allen turned 31 in April and is coming of an injury-plagued 2022 that saw him miss seven games. The veteran is also more chain mover than downfield threat, having not eclipsed 12.0 yards per catch since 2018.

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Williams is great on contested balls, but he has dealt with injuries as well, and despite his size he’s topped five TD grabs in a season only once in the past four years. While Palmer took a step in Year 2, he’s yet to prove he’s more than a possession option.

Despite all three being talented contributors, there’s one thing they’re all missing: speed. That lack of big-play ability is borne out in Justin Herbert‘s numbers as the strong-armed quarterback averaged a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt — only Tom Brady (733) attempted more passes than Herbert (699), who finished second to Patrick Mahomes (5,250) in passing yardage (4,739) despite heavily featuring short and intermediate routes.

Los Angeles hopes the selection of Johnston will go a long way toward fixing that issue. The rookie has an exciting mix of size (6-foot-3, 208 pounds), speed, and acceleration, and he’ll be given every chance to claim the starting job opposite Williams on the outside with Allen manning the slot. In that scenario, Palmer would slide into the No. 4 receiver role.

There’s also sure to be changes as Kellen Moore takes over as offensive coordinator from Joe Lombardi. During his four years as the Dallas Cowboys’ OC, Moore’s offenses ranked in the top six in scoring three times, and in terms of pushing the ball downfield, Dak Prescott averaged 8.2, 8.4, 7.5, and 7.3 yards per attempt, respectively, under Moore.

Fantasy football outlook

Things could go a few ways for Johnston in 2023. If he comes in, picks up Moore’s playbook, and earns a starting job, he could become Herbert’s de facto deep threat. In that role, Johnston could have real value given Herbert’s willingness (and ability) to air it out.

If the rookie struggles, LA could roll with Allen, Williams, and Palmer, pushing Johnston into reserve duty. Even if that ends up being the case, he’s one injury away from a featured role in a prominent passing design.

Consider Johnston a borderline top-50 fantasy receiver who would make an intriguing late-round target.