Category: Buckeyes Wire

Big Ten and big game NCAA Football 2019 Expert Picks And Predictions For Week 12

Another week, another round of our staff picking against the odds and straight up for all the Big Ten football and big national games.

The college football calendar is turning ever so quickly, and conference games are now going to determine everything in the Big Ten and around the country. We now have true contenders, those positioning for bowl games, and those teams looking to play spoiler.

As normal, we’re predicting every Big Ten game for the week straight-up and against the spread, but since the slate is lighter with conference play being in full swing towards the end of the season, we’ll do the same for the six games deemed to be the biggest nationally each week. We’re the judge and jury on that one.

A a reminder, if there’s an *next to the pick, that means the team will win, but not cover. Also, we get our odds from BetMGM.

INSTRUCTIONS: Make your pick against the spread. For example …
– If you think Ohio State will win -3.5 over Michigan: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win outright: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win, but NOT cover: OSU*
– If there’s a tie, George Washington settles it via the ‘ole quarter coin-flip.

Here we go for week twelve, but first, the standings that will be updated each week after all the games. Onward we go. Just keep picking, just keep picking …

RESULTS SO FAR

@PhilHarrisonBW: 101-31 SU, 57-75 ATS
@yesh222: 99-33 SU, 73-59 ATS
@MarkRussell1975: 104-28 SU, 81-51 ATS
@BrentReeves: 99-33 SU, 73-59 ATS
@SirBrockNetter: 101-31 SU, 64-68 ATS
@JaxFryburger: 101-31 SU, 70-62 ATS
CONSENSUS PICK: 102-30 SU, 75-57 ATS

First up … Big Ten early games

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Ohio State leapfrogs Nova, Kentucky in CBS Updated Top 25

The Ohio State Buckeyes, behind the play of a couple new freshman, and returning guys like Kaleb Wesson, are looking like a top ten team.

The Ohio State Buckeyes, behind the play of three four-star recruits and Kaleb Wesson, have entered into the nation’s college basketball top ten. They do so on the back of a dominant effort against Villanova.

The Buckeyes, who had one of their best-recruiting classes of the decade coming into this season, opened up the preseason at No. 18. Now at No. 16, the Buckeyes are looking at a promising jump in the AP Poll.

For now, we’ll take a look at the Thursday edition of the CBS Sports’ updated top 25.

They have Ohio State at No. 10, jumping both Villanova and the former top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. However, in just a few short weeks, it’ll get its shot against the latter half of those programs.

CBS Sports’ columnist Gary Parrish had this to say on the Buckeyes impressive victory and terrific all-around start.

“OSU shot 60.0% from the field in Wednesday’s win over Villanova. Duane Washington was one of five Buckeyes to reach double-figures in points.”

Now 3-0, the Buckeyes are far past that concerning start against Cincinnati.

Also tallying a win over UMass Lowell, the Buckeyes entered their matchup with Nova confident with D.J. Carton starting to get acclimated to the speed of college basketball and Kaleb Wesson looking as dominant (and trimmed down) as ever.

Carton, Wesson and Washington Jr. led the Buckeyes against Nova, and it was an absolute show.

Now the Buckeyes will be preparing for Stetson this coming Monday. By then, we should officially be calling Ohio State a top-ten team one would think.

Paul Finebaum thinks Ohio State would “probably” beat LSU

Even though Paul Finebaum has LSU over Ohio State in his weekly rankings, he believes the Buckeyes would win if the two matched up.

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Not that you take your identity in what others outside the program think, but it’s always interesting to check in on what SEC flag-bearer and SEC Network radio/television host Paul Finebaum things of a team not in the sun and moonshine belt.

To that end, Finebaum appeared on First Take and was asked if he thought Ohio State or LSU would win if the two met at the end of the regular season. It is notable because the SEC talking head had been ranking Ohio State No. 1 in his opinion based rankings each week.

Until this past week that is.

After the Tigers beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Finebaum — like most media and even CFP Committee members have — felt LSU had done enough to take over the top spot.

However, when pressed on the issue, Finebaum’s answer didn’t match his opinion of which team was No. 1 in the country. He said that the Buckeyes would “probably” beat LSU. He cited LSU’s close games in comparison to how Ohio State had been totally dominant in blowing everyone out.

You can listen to the exchange yourself by clicking on the below video shared to the official Twitter feed of First Take.

This is further proof that many believe Ohio State is the best and most complete team in the country, but that LSU has better wins, and is “more deserving.” Now, as a public service announcement, we must remind you that many pro-SEC folks have been banging the drum for years that it’s about the “best” teams, not the most deserving.

Funny how that same notion doesn’t apply when discussing an SEC team though.

Ohio State football rooting interests for week 12

Looking forward to Week 12 of the college football season, what should Ohio State fans root for in all of the games.

We’re back for another week of Rooting Interests. Remember, the goal of this exercise is to look at what will give the Buckeyes the best possible resume in case they lose a game. 13-0 Ohio State is a Playoff lock, so there isn’t much to root for there. But if the Buckeyes drop a game to Penn State, Michigan, or in the Big Ten Championship Game, what will best help the Buckeyes get in to the College Football Playoff.

The first game Buckeye fans should pay attention to is Friday night’s Conference-USA showdown between Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Two of Ohio State’s nonconference opponents (Miami of Ohio and Cincinnati) have already essentially wrapped up division titles. FAU has a decent chance of making it three-for-three, but Marshall needs to lose a game for that to happen. This game is Marshall’s most likely loss in the final three weeks.

On Saturday, there are a ton of important games. As always, Alabama losing wouldn’t hurt, though is obviously unlikely. And while usually upsets always help, Florida has the weakest resume of any SEC contender right now. So as long as Georgia can lose the SEC East, Florida winning is better. Then again, if Miami (Fl) wins its final two games, Florida’s resume could be on par with Georgia’s. And, of course, a Florida loss isn’t a bad outcome, especially if Georgia beats either Auburn or Texas A&M.

In the afternoon, root for Navy over Notre Dame. Not only does an Irish loss hurt Georgia’s resume, but Navy could be 10-1 and meet Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. That would be a battle of Top 15 teams, and Cincinnati winning that would only make Ohio State look better. Speaking of Cincinnati, the Bearcats travel to face South Florida at 7 PM. Staying in the AAC in the afternoon, root for Memphis to beat Houston and keep its high ranking.

Moving over to ACC games, it’s always good to root for Clemson to lose. The Tigers, with a loss, should be ranked behind even a one-loss Ohio State team, so them losing to Wake Forest would be good. If they beat Wake Forest, though, pull for a blowout. The worst-case scenario would be Wake Forest being viewed as a more valuable win solely on the back of keeping it close against Clemson. Also, pull for Virginia Tech to fall to Georgia Tech. The Hokies could still be a decent opponent in the ACC Championship Game at 9-3, but a loss to Georgia Tech would erase that completely.

In the evening, don’t waste too much time on LSU at Ole Miss. The Tigers almost certainly won’t lose two games, and even if they do, they still have an incredible resume. LSU winning would help Ohio State by not making any of Alabama’s wins look more valuable.

There are pros and cons for both Baylor and Oklahoma winning. Baylor going undefeated is a bigger issue for Ohio State than 12-1 Oklahoma is, though, so you may as well root for the Sooners here. Either way, though, this game should be a close one, and preferably not a pretty one. Mistakes and turnovers winning the day makes both teams look bad, which is the goal here.

Two other 7:30 games matter, but in contradictory ways. Root for Georgia State to beat Appalachian State so that South Carolina looks worse. At the same time, though, root for South Carolina to beat Texas A&M–because Texas A&M not being a valuable win is more important than South Carolina being an even worse opponent. (Remember, Alabama beat South Carolina but Georgia lost to the Gamecocks.)

Later in the evening, Utah and Oregon losing don’t hurt. It’s better for Oregon to lose, though, for two reasons. First of all, Utah has a weaker overall resume than the Ducks. Secondly, especially if Oklahoma beats Baylor, remember that Oklahoma beat UCLA earlier in the season. Right now, the Sooners only have two decent wins (Texas and Iowa State). UCLA winning out–or at least upsetting Utah–would make Oklahoma look better. And speaking of Iowa State, root for the Cyclones to upset Texas. Not only would that help Iowa stay ranked (more on that in the next section), but it would take the luster off Oklahoma’s best win so far.

Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games

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Week 12 CFP Bubble Watch: What rankings don’t make sense?

Let’s start to look at the resumes of the 15 teams still alive in the Playoff discussion. Who deserves to be ranked higher or lower?

Welcome to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 15 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 15 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. Keep in mind, it’s still a little early in the season, so the different SOS methodologies could bring up radically different results. Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow over the next few weeks.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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Ohio State is a 50.5-point favorite on the road against Rutgers

Those betting for Ohio State to beat the spread have been sitting pretty, but will they continue to trust when they’re 50.5-point favorites?

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Those betting for Ohio State to beat the spread have been sitting pretty, but will they continue to trust when they’re 50.5-point favorites?

It’s difficult to go against them again as they just trampled Maryland by 59 points. However, Maryland beat Rutgers 48-7. This seems like another safe bet.

We should also note that Ryan Day isn’t just looking to win these games. Yes, that’s the bare acceptable minimum against any non-ranked team, but the fact of the matter is that he wants the CFP to understand Ohio State’s dominance.

They’re feeling the pain now, and Rutgers may be feeling it come Saturday. That said, the 50.5-point line was first released by Circa Sports.

The Buckeyes are 8-1 against the spread this season so it seems like a safe bet to continue putting money on. Even without Chase Young, this team is just all-out dominant.

Scoring 73 points against Maryland, the Buckeyes are bound to put up another near-100 score on Saturday.

Watch what Rutgers interim head coach Nunzio Campanile said about Ohio State while previewing the game

Rutgers interim head coach Nunzio Campanile met with media in Piscataway Monday and discussed what a challenge playing Ohio State will be.

Rutgers is about to roll out the red carpet for the Ohio State football team this Saturday. It’ll be a tall task to compete with one of the best teams in the country Saturday, and interim head coach Nunzio Campanile isn’t afraid to understand the challenge of facing such a complete team.

He met with the local media in Piscataway Monday to discuss the game with Ohio State, and he was very complimentary of the team he’s seen on film. We always like to bring the opposing head coach’s comments your way, and we’ve got his entire press conference here thanks to YouTube channel of RVison.

Click on the below and watch the Rutgers head man discuss how Ohio State is as complete a team as he’s ever seen, and how if there’s a better team out there, he’d love to see it.

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Every single coach that goes into a game with Ohio State continues to express their awe at how talented and complete this team is in 2019.

Maybe someone should tell the College Football Playoff Committee that now thinks the Buckeyes are the second best team in the country just because LSU beat Alabama.

WATCH: Ohio State head coach Ryan Day press conference previewing Rutgers

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day met with the media Tuesday to preview Rutgers in his weekly press conference. Catch it all here.

After making quick and light work of Maryland last week. Actually, after taking care of business in every single game this year by a wide margin, Ohio State now travels to Piscataway to take on a rather unassuming Rutgers team that has yet to notch a Big Ten victory in 2019.

The game isn’t expected to be much of a contest, but don’t tell that to Buckeye head coach Ryan Day. He’s trying to keep his team motivated and focused for road game.

Day met with the media as he always does for his weekly press conference, this time to preview Maryland. And as we do every week, we archive it for you so you can catch up.

Simply click on the below video Tweet courtesy of official Twitter feed of the Ohio State Buckeyes and listen to the entire press conference. Day touched on Rutgers, answered questions about Chase Young, discussed Joe Burrow, and more.

In case you’d rather read the transcript of the presser instead of watch the video, it is included as well on the next page.

Next … Full Ryan Day Transcript of presser for Rutgers

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Ohio State gets leapfrogged by LSU in latest CFP Rankings, but is that the right call?

The CFP Committee is supposed to rank the best teams, not the teams with the best resumes. Ohio State drops to No. 2 and it’s not right.

We all saw it coming from a mile away. By way of its win on the road against Alabama, the LSU Tigers have moved ahead of Ohio State and grabbed the No. 1 spot in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings. The Buckeyes checked in at No. 2.

So much for looking at things objectively and railing against the national narrative. It’s one thing for it to happen with the narrow-minded AP and Amway Coaches Polls, but it’s another for the so-called smartest minds in football to do it with an unbiased eye.

I agree that there’s something to be said about the resume the Tigers have put together with four Top 25 wins and all, but at some point it seems like a bit of a cop out. Do you reward the most deserving team, or the better team? Ohio State has been more dominant than any other team out there, yet it drops to LSU because of the Alabama and SEC curve yet again.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again. Teams that play well against Alabama are given preferential treatment time and time again. A two-loss Georgia team appeared ahead of a one-loss Big Ten Champion Ohio State in the last set of CFP Rankings last year. And now, simply for beating the Tide, LSU gets the benefit of the doubt and leaps over the Buckeyes for the No. 1 spot.

The advanced metrics for Ohio State have been setting records.You couple that with the Buckeyes’ total domination on the field, and it feels like the CFP fell in line with popular opinion because LSU being better than Alabama means it’s better than anyone else.

Hogwash.

It’s time to ask the question of whether this Ohio State team, if having an SEC logo on the front of its jersey, would have dropped. If Alabama would have been this dominant in recent years, I’d bet the farm that there’s no way, no how, it would drop from the No. 1 slot unless it lost. I mean, Ohio State put up 73 freakin’ points against Maryland, hasn’t played a game close yet, has the nation’s best defense, and a top five offense.

Better yet, Ohio State leads the country in yards allowed per game, points per game given up, points scored per game on offense, and yet it still gets leapfrogged because a team from the SEC beat Alabama. OSU looked utterly dominant against a Power Five opponent last game despite missing its best player.

There’s not one thing Ohio State could have done better than what it has to date to be the No. 1 team in the country other than by drinking sweet tea and having grits and bologna sandwiches for breakfast.

It’s a good thing we have four teams that make this playoff because it’ll take a little of the SEC bias out of the equation. Or so we hope.

You have to do better College Football Playoff Committee and quit drinking the SEC Kool-Aid. Just you wait though until the SEC gets two teams in all the fun yet again.

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What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Blow teams out

What did we learn from the CFP selection committee’s second rankings? Let’s break down what it all means.

In what is a bit of a first from the CFP selection committee, it actually has a very predictable consistent methodology so far this year. However, it’s not a good methodology, and it’s a trend that’s not a good one. The committee isn’t particularly looking at resumes or strength of schedules. It’s not talking about quality wins or schedule strength. No, this year, the committee only seems to care about how much a team wins by.

Maybe this is a bit of an overreaction based on a small sample size. After all, it’s only the second ranking, and there are potentially somewhat reasonable explanations for all of the rankings. (Well, assuming that “Alabama always gets benefit of the doubt” constitutes a somewhat reasonable explanation.)

Let’s look at it, from bottom to top. SMU–the only team to win but drop out of the rankings–very clearly fell out due to a close win over a bad team. The Mustangs still have a considerably stronger schedule and resume than Appalachian State does. That didn’t seem to matter.

This is the only explanation for both Baylor and Oklahoma being so low. Baylor is one of five undefeated Power 5 teams, and is ranked all the way down at No. 13. Not only is Baylor ranked behind one-loss teams, it’s ranked behind two-loss teams. And, contrary to claims of Baylor having a bad resume (and I’m perfectly fine with the committee punishing Baylor for an atrocious nonconference schedule), the Bears have two ranked wins–more than some of the teams in front of them. Oklahoma also has two ranked wins (and a loss to a ranked team), yet is ranked behind both Utah and Oregon–who combine for zero ranked wins. Rob Mullens did again hint that Baylor was punished for its nonconference schedule, but this message appears clearer.

The committee doesn’t tell us much often. But, for now, at least, the committee seems to have determined that the eye test is king.

Making sense of Alabama, Minnesota, and Penn State

Last week, the committee somewhat contradicted itself with how it ranked Alabama, Penn State, and Clemson. Penn State’s “superior resume” supposedly put the Nittany Lions in front of Clemson, though now it seems far more likely that Clemson was just being punished for a close win over North Carolina. Penn State also has several close wins, but those were all against teams worse than North Carolina.

Alabama, meanwhile, seems to be skating through on the fact that it has blown everyone out. Of course, none of the teams Alabama blew out were particularly good. Alabama has no ranked wins–in fact, this is the first time that a one-loss team has been ranked as high as No. 5 this early in the season without a win over a committee-ranked team.

Minnesota is down at No. 8. The Golden Gophers have–other than LSU’s win over Alabama–the best win of any ranked team. The Golden Gophers are also undefeated, and yet behind four teams with a loss. I honestly have no idea how to explain the fact that Minnesota is behind Utah. Maybe this is just a bit of an oversight by the committee?

Other notes

I said yesterday to keep an eye on if the committee shifts things around, or if teams stay static from week to week. That will tell us if the voters are really re-evaluating from scratch each week, or just moving teams up or down based on who loses.

Well, this week, not a single team is in the same position it was in last week. You would think that’s an indicator that the committee is re-evaluating. Unfortunately, it’s not. 14 of the 25 teams that moved moved only one spot, and all of that was due to teams around them jumping or falling. Minnesota jumped eight spots for beating Penn State, so everyone above Minnesota fell a spot. Penn State dropped, so everyone behind Penn State rose. Wake Forest and Kansas State dropped with losses, so the teams behind them moved up.

No one stayed in the same place, but every team that didn’t lose or pick up a major win stayed in the same relative position. The committee didn’t do any re-evaluating this week. It just took what it had last week, other than teams that deserved major shifts.

Lastly, I should note that the committee is continuing a trend it has shown consistently since 2014. A team doesn’t drop for a close loss to a better team. The example this week is Iowa, which only slid three spots for its very close loss against Wisconsin. One of those spots was Texas, which jumped all the way into the rankings at No. 19 for its upset of Kansas State.

Maybe next week the committee will do more re-evaluating from scratch, and it’s really only the top four that matter anyway. Still, the little we have seen and heard from the selection committee so far this season is not encouraging, to say the least.