Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz odds for their boxing match in Dallas, with expert picks and predictions.

In a 10-round catchweight bout Saturday, Jake Paul and Nate Diaz meet at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. The prelims begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the main event scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The ring walks for Paul-Diaz are set for approximately 11:15 p.m. ET (DAZN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Paul vs. Diaz odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

Records: Paul (6-1-0, 4 KOs) | Diaz (0-0-0, boxing debut)

Paul heads to the ring looking to bounce back after losing by split-decision in Saudi Arabia against Tommy Fury in late February. The social media influencer headed into his boxing career with gimmick fights against Ali Eson Gib and former NBA player Nate Robinson. They were entertaining, but overall, Paul boxing seemed like a joke.

That all changed when he stopped former UFC fighter Ben Askren in April 2021 in Atlanta, winning by way of TKO. Four months later, he defeated another former UFC fighter in Tyron Woodley with a split-decision victory in Cleveland, Paul’s hometown. He then won a rematch in December 2021, knocking out Woodley in the 6th round in Tampa.

Paul also stopped Anderson Silva via unanimous decision in Glendale, Ariz., in October 2022 before losing to Fury in a close fight.

Diaz, the former UFC champion, makes his boxing debut. The 38-year-old has mostly fought at 155 pounds in his career, but this will be a catchweight bout at 185 pounds. Both Diaz and Paul have a reach of 76 inches.

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Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (3-way line): Paul -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Diaz +333 (bet $100 to win $333) | Draw +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400)
  • How many rounds: 8 or more -140 | Less than 8 +100
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -200)

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Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz picks and predictions

Fight result (or moneyline)

Paul (-400) will cost 4 times the potential return. That’s just too expensive for not enough reward.

I expect Paul to get the job done as the most special thing about Diaz (+333) in his UFC career was his ability to wrestle and submit opponents. In fact, he was 14-1 via that method of victory in 35 pro bouts, but that’s not part of boxing. He has been knocked out twice, however, and Paul packs a devastating punch.

I’d look to the “round group betting 1” instead for better value. PAUL IN ROUNDS 6-10 (+188) is a much better play for a chance to nearly double up.

In addition, I’d take a chance on OVER 1.5 (+138) OFFICIAL RECORDED KNOCKDOWNS. Paul could catch Diaz early, but it won’t be a fight ender. Paul will likely win behind a knockout, but it won’t be on the 1st knockdown — expect more than one knockdown in this match.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-200): Fight to go full 10 rounds is just too expensive. Instead, focus on the round group betting mentioned above.

Consider betting LESS THAN 9 ROUNDS (-140), which is a much better value, but I like the plus-money way more.

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Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence Jr. odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence Jr. odds for their undisputed welterweight title bout, with expert picks and predictions.

In a 12-round welterweight championship bout Saturday, Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr. meet at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET, with the main event ring walks set for approximately 11 p.m. ET (Showtime PPV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Crawford vs. Spence Jr. odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

Records: Crawford (39-0-0, 30 KOs) | Spence Jr. (28-0-0, 22 KOs)

Crawford puts his WBO welterweight title on the line against Spence Jr., who has his WBA (Super), WBC, IBF and The Ring welterweight straps up for grabs.

Crawford snagged the WBO welterweight belt from Jeff Horn in June 2018, and he defended it against Jose Benavidez Jr., Amir Khan, Egidijus Kavaliauskas, Kell Brook, Shawn Porter and David Avanesyan. Not only has he won all of those title defenses, but he has 8 straight KO/TKO victories.

Crawford holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Spence Jr. is 18 inches taller, and he is 2 years younger. Spence Jr, a.k.a. “The Truth”, has won 78.57% of his bouts by KO/TKO, while Crawford has won via KO/TKO in 76.92% of his contests.

Spence Jr. snapped up the IBF World Welterweight Championship with an 11th-round KO/TKO against Brook in May 2017, and he defended that belt with a win over Lamont Peterson in Brooklyn in Jan. 2018. He added the WBC belt to his collected, edging Mikey Garcia via unanimous decision, and he grabbed the WBA super world welterweight belt in April 2022 by stopping Yordenis Ugas by TKO last time out.

Crawford vs. Spence Jr. odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Crawford -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Spence Jr. +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Over/Under: 11 rounds (Over -225 | Under +175)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +138)

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Crawford vs. Spence Jr. picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The atmosphere is going to be electric, and one of these fighters will be walking away with the undisputed title. I like SPENCE JR. (+120) to get it done in a slight upset.

Fight fans might see a bit of a slow start to this one, and the pace will irritate people initially. But it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and we’ll get some big-time haymakers exchanged in the middle-to-late rounds. Spence is a little more aggressive, while Crawford is more tactical and calculating.

I like Spence to do more to wow the judges, and taking SPENCE JR. ON POINTS (+260) is certainly worth a roll of the dice to multiply your initial wager by more than 2 1/2 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

Since I like Spence Jr. to win in a decision, playing YES (-190): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the way to go. While that’s a little too expensive for my liking, if you want a little action, and do not wish to declare a winner, that’s the conservative play.

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Franchon Crews Dezurn vs. Savannah Marshall odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s women’s title fight odds of Franchon Crews Dezurn vs Savannah Marshall, with expert boxing picks and predictions.

In a 10-round undisputed super middleweight title fight, Franchon Crews Dezurn faces Savannah Marshall Saturday at AO Arena in Manchester, England. The main fight card is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (ESPN+), with the main event scheduled for approximately 4 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Jonas vs. Wyatt odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

Records: Crews Dezurn (8-1-0, 2 KOs) | Marshall (12-1-0, 10 KOs)

Crews Dezurn — “The Heavy Hitting Diva” — brings a 72-inch reach to this bout, while Marshall enters with a 71½-inch reach. The 36-year-old Crews Dezurn has managed just 2 knockouts in 9 career fights, while “The Silent Assassin” Marshall has 10 knockouts in her 13 fights.

Crews Dezurn picked up a unanimous-decision win over Elin Cederroos at Madison Square Garden in late April 2022, picking up the undisputed middleweight straps. This will be her 1st defense of that undisputed title in Marshall’s native U.K.

Marshall hasn’t fought since suffering her 1st pro career loss to Claressa Shields by unanimous-decision in mid-October at O2 Arena in Greenwich, England.

Crews Dezurn vs. Marshall odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:18 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (3-way line): Crews Dezurn +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Draw +1280 (bet $100 to win $1,280) | Marshall -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -460 | No +310)

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Crews Dezurn vs. Marshall picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The 32-year-old Briton Marshall (-350) will cost 3½ times the potential return. That’s simply too risky for not enough value. Instead, you’ll need to get a little more creative, and look to the “method of victory.”

MARSHALL ON POINTS OR DECISION (-210) is still a bit too expensive for my liking, but it’s worth playing, especially if you want to play a potential parlay with the Natasha Jonas vs. Kandi Wyatt fight, which is earlier on the Manchester card.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-460): Fight to go the distance? will cost 4.6 times the potential return, also too risky for not enough reward. Even as part of a multi-part parlay, including this prop just sucks all of the value out of your ticket.

AVOID and focus on the “method of victory” option mentioned above.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Natasha Jonas vs. Kandi Wyatt odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s women’s title fight odds between Natasha Jonas and Kandi Wyatt, with expert boxing picks and predictions.

In a 10-round women’s welterweight fight for the vacant IBF title, Natasha Jonas faces Kandi Wyatt Saturday at AO Arena in Manchester, England. The main fight card is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (ESPN+), with the main event scheduled for approximately 4 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Jonas vs. Wyatt odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

Records: Jonas (13-2-1, 8 KOs) | Wyatt (11-4-0, 3 KOs)

Jonas drops down to 147 pounds for a shot at the vacant IBF welterweight title. She already owns the IBF, WBC and WBO world super welterweight straps after posting a unanimous-decision (UD) win over Marie Eve Dicaire last time out at this same venue in mid-November 2022.

The victory was her second consecutive UD victory and 4th win in a row. She defeated  Patricia Berghult by UD in September 2022, Chris Namus by TKO in February 2022 and Vaida Masiokaite on points in November 2021. Jonas’ last loss was a UD setback to Katie Taylor — at 134½ pounds —  in May 2021.

The Canadian Wyatt suffered 3 straight losses against Kali Reis, Alma Ibarra and Jessica McCaskill from November 2020 to December 2021. But she snapped that skid in her last fight with a split-decision win over Kirstie Bavington in March. Now, she faces the quick turnaround as an overwhelming underdog.

Jonas vs. Wyatt odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (3-way line): Jonas -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) | Draw +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500) | Wyatt +680 (bet $100 to win $680)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -154)

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Jonas vs. Wyatt picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Backing the heavy favorite Jonas (-1000) is not wise as betting on the 39-year-old veteran will cost 10 times the potential return.

Instead, play Jonas in the “method of victory” section. Eight of her 13 victories are via KO/TKO, and this one should be no exception.

BETTING JONAS BY KO/TKO (-120) is not priced out of line, and is the best value in terms of method.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-154): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the way to go, playing it in concert with Jonas by KO/TKO.

While Jonas went the distance in her 2 most recent fights, the Dicaire fight was a much higher profile opponent. Wyatt is fighting on short rest, and is the heavy underdog. Jonas will show why she is so heavily favored.

In addition, look to the “alternative group round betting 2” section, wagering on a couple of blocks.

TAKE JONAS TO WIN IN ROUND 5-6 (+600) and JONAS TO WIN IN ROUND 7-8 (+450). Sure, you’ll lose one of the ends if Jonas wins in Rounds 5-8, but if she wins via stoppage in one of these rounds, you’ll be well ahead.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Carlos Adames vs. Julian Williams odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s title fight odds of Carlos Adames vs. Julian Williams, with expert boxing picks and predictions.

In a 12-round WBC middleweight title fight, Carlos Adames faces Julian Williams Saturday at The Armory in Minneapolis. The main fight card is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (Showtime/Paramount+), with the main event scheduled for approximately 10:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Adames vs. Williams odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

Adames has picked up 4 consecutive victories, including 3 KO/TKO wins, since a unanimous-decision setback to Patrick Teixeira back in November 2019. The lone fight to go the distance was a majority-decision win against Sergiy Derevyanchenko in Los Angeles in December 2021.

Adames has just a half-inch reach advantage over his counterpart, but he is also an inch taller, and 4 years younger. The Dominican fighter has recorded a 73.91% knockout rate in his 23 career professional bouts, and the hard puncher will likely be looking to get started quickly in this one.

Williams enters ranked 25th in the world, so he is fortunate to have a crack at the strap. He had a unanimous-decision win over Rolando Wenceslao Mansilla at this very same venue last time out in early November, but Adames represents a giant step up in competition.

In addition, prior to the win in his last fight, Williams lost by split-decision to Vladimir Hernandez, and he also suffered a disappointing 5th-round TKO loss to Jeison Rosario at Liacouras Center in Philadelphia in mid-January 2020.

Adames vs. Williams odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (3-way line): Adames -470 (bet $470 to win $100) | Williams +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Draw +1280 (bet $100 to win $1,280)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +235 | No -330)

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Adames vs. Williams picks and predictions

Records: Adames (22-1-0, 17 KOs) | Williams (28-3-1, 16 KOs)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Adames (-470) is quite a bit expensive, costing nearly 5 times the potential return. That’s not a recommended play, even folding him into a multiple-end parlay.

I expect the heavy favorite will have the expected easy run to victory. The best play, albeit still on the expensive side, is playing ADAMES BY KO/TKO (-195) in the method of victory. As mentioned above, 73.91% of his fights have ended with a knockout victory, so it’s a very good chance to happen again.

Over/Under (O/U)

In addition, playing No (-330): Will the fight go the distance? is another foolish bet. It’s a good possibility we get a knockout, but you can’t risk 3.3 times the potential return.

Instead, let’s look to round block betting. In fact, I like ADAMES TO WIN IN ROUND 7-9 (+260) or ADAMES TO WIN IN ROUND 10-12 (+650). If you play this, you’ll obviously lose one end, but if Adames wins in Round 7-12, you will cash.

If you’re more conservative, simply go with ADAMES TO WIN IN ROUND 7-12 (+150) for a chance to multiply your initial bet by 1½ times.

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Joshua Franco vs. Kazuto Ioka odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s title fight odds of Joshua Franco vs. Kazuto Ioka, with expert boxing picks and predictions.

In a 12-round WBA super flyweight title fight, Joshua Franco faces Kazuto Ioka Saturday at Ota-City General Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan. While the main fight card is scheduled for Saturday night in Tokyo, it will start 7 a.m. ET with the main event scheduled for approximately 9 a.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Franco vs. Ioka odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

These 2 fighters fought to a majority draw on New Year’s Eve at this same venue. One judge had Franco winning 115-113, while the other 2 judges scored it 114-114.

Franco has had some interesting fights lately. He had a no contest in the “bubble” at MGM Grand in Las Vegas against Andrew Moloney in November 2020 in a fight which was also a rematch. He topped Moloney via unanimous decision in late June 2020.

Franco bounced back from the no contest in the trilogy fight with a unanimous-decision win against Moloney in the rematch at Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Tulsa in mid-August 2021. Franco hopes the rematch luck is on his side again Saturday.

Ioka had won 6 straight fights, all in his native Japan, since losing by split-decision to Donnie Nietes in Macau on New Year’s Eve 2018. He avenged that loss with a unanimous-decision win over Nietes prior to the last fight with Franco. Nietes, too, hopes for rematch success.

Franco vs. Ioka odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (3-way line): Franco -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Ioka +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Tie +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
  • Over/Under: 11 rounds (11 or more -500 | Under +333)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -400 | No +275)

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Franco vs. Ioka picks and predictions

Records: Franco (18-1-3, 8 KOs) | Ioka (29-2-1, 15 KOs)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

At even money, IOKA (+100) is the play in his native Japan. He was on the short end of the majority draw last time out, but he’ll bounce back with a win here.

Ioka has tremendous punching power, which will be on full display, perhaps with a little extra motivation in front of a pro-Ioka crowd. He’ll also have a chip on his shoulder from not being scored ahead by any of the 3 judges last time.

The main concern is that Franco (-110) has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, so Ioka will have to be careful not to step into a big punch.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is no sense playing Yes (-400): Will the fight go the distance? as this will cost 4 times the potential return. Eleven round or more (-500) is even more costly.

Instead, focus on IOKA ON POINTS (+160) in a full-distance fight. Whether you like Ioka, or if you disagree with me and intend to play Franco, definitely go to the “Round Group Betting” section and take either fighter on points. There is very little chance we get a knockout.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Regis Prograis vs. Danielito Zorrilla odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s title fight odds of Regis Prograis vs. Danielito Zorrilla, with expert boxing picks and predictions.

In a 12-round WBC junior welterweight title fight, Regis Prograis faces Danielito Zorrilla Saturday at Smoothie King Arena in New Orleans. The main fight card is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (DAZN), with the main event scheduled for approximately 11:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Prograis vs. Zorrilla odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.

Prograis returns to the ring for the first time since Nov. 26, 2022 when he knocked out Jose Zepeda in the 11th round at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, Calif. Before that, he had a pair of 6th-round TKOs against Tyrone McKenna and Ivan Redkach.

Previously, he was expected to face Liam Paro, but the latter was forced out due to injury, entering Zorrilla.

Prograis has had 4 consecutive KO/TKO wins since a majority-decision setback against Josh Taylor at O2 Arena in the United Kingdom in Oct. 2019. With a win, Prograis could potentially set up a rematch with Teofimo Lopez Jr. for the WBO title, after the latter topped Taylor last weekend.

Zorrilla rebounded with a 1st-round TKO of Aristides Quintero to get his swagged back after falling via unanimous decision against Arnold Barboza Jr. in mid-July 2022 in a fight for the WBO inter-continental super lightweight belt.

Prograis vs. Zorrilla odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Prograis -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100) | Zorrilla +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
  • Over/Under: 9 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -450)

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Prograis vs. Zorrilla picks and predictions

Records: Prograis (28-1-0, 24 KOs) | Zorrilla (17-1-0, 13 KOs)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Prograis (-1600), the prodigal son of New Orleans, returns to his hometown to headline at Smoothie King Arena for the first time in his career. The fighter, displaced by Hurricane Katrina, is hopeful of putting his hometown further back on the athletic map.

The 34-year-old southpaw enters this fight with a 67-inch reach, while Zorrilla (+700) has a 3-inch advantage in that department. However, Prograis has plenty of experience, and he will have the hometown crowd behind him.

The NOLA native will likely make quick work of the challenger, coming in on short notice. However, you cannot risk 16 times your potential return. There is just too much risk for not enough reward.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Prograis will win, barring a major disaster, but how soon?

I think the sweet spot, and the books seem to agree, that Round Group Betting focusing on PROGRAIS WIN IN ROUND 5-8 (+160) is the way to go.

There is no value playing No (-450): Will the fight go the distance? However, if you want to go with LESS THAN 9 ROUNDS (-135), for a little more wiggle room, that’s certainly a sensible way to go, too.

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