Vikings have an average strength of schedule per ESPN’s FPI

Despite having a first place schedule, the Minnesota Vikings have the 15th-ranked schedule based on ESPN’s Football Power Index.

The 2023 Minnesota Vikings are an interesting enigma. Ranking 15th in the league and only a 29% chance to win the NFC North per ESPN’s Football Power Index, there isn’t a lot of confidence in a team that went 13-4 in 2022.

FPI also has rankings on strength of schedule on the basis of comparing their remaining schedule from the perspective of an average team. Based on that ranking, the Vikings have the 15th most difficult schedule per FPI.

One of the elements that the Vikings have going against them is a first place schedule that will have them play the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals as their opponents that differ from the rest of the NFC North.

For comparison, the Green Bay Packers rank with the 21st-toughest schedule, the Detroit Lions 23rd and the Chicago Bears 24th.

ESPN’s FPI has Vikings with 29% chance to win NFC North

Giving them just a 29% chance to win the NFC North, ESPN’s FPI doesn’t have a lot of confidnece in the Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings are continuing to be doubted. ESPN’s Football Power Index has them as the 15th-best team entering the 2023 season just one year after finishing with a 13-4 record.

Along with their overall projections, the Football Power Index doesn’t believe they have a great shot to win the NFC North, giving the Vikings a 29% chance to become division champions.

The Detroit Lions have a 43% chance to win the division with the Chicago Bears at 16% and the Green Bay Packers in last at 12%. Explaining the models findings, Seth Walder explained that there is data that shows the Lions are a better team.

Although the Minnesota Vikings won the division last season with 13 wins, and the Lions missed the playoffs with nine, there’s evidence that Detroit was — and is — the better team. It had a higher points differential (plus-26) than Minnesota (minus-3) a year ago, and the Lions ranked fourth in EPA per play on offense (Minnesota was 15th).

Will the Lions finally live up to their potential? We will know that answer as the season unfolds. However, don’t sleep on the Vikings.

Vikings aren’t viewed highly in ESPN’s FPI projections

Different projections are continuously placing the Vikings around the middle of the pack in the NFL, with the latest being ESPN’s FPI.

After finishing at 13-4 in the 2022 season, there has been a lot of regression talk for the Vikings. Having gone 11-0 in one-score games is quite the anomaly and moving closer to the mean in that area makes a lot of sense.

As we continue to see analytical models come out projecting the 2023 NFL season, they aren’t viewing the Vikings favorably. The latest of them is ESPN’s Football Power Index. They have the Vikings at 15th in the NFL with a rating of +0.5 (Kansas City has a rating of +6.4 at first overall).

The placement is a peculiar one. They are in a grouping with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos at +0.9, New York Giants at +0.5, New England Patriots at +0.3 and Cleveland Browns at +0.2. That grouping makes a lot of sense when you look at it in a vacuum. They all have a lot of positives, but numerous question marks.

As we look toward the 2023 season, the Vikings continue to be viewed as a fringe playoff team by many.

Draft combine measurements: Who are the 2023 prospects most comparable to?

Though the combine measurements are not the be-all and end-all, they undeniably provide a significant amount of new data which can be factored in when making decisions on draft night. We have the draft combine results for all the players who have …

Though the combine measurements are not the be-all and end-all, they undeniably provide a significant amount of new data which can be factored in when making decisions on draft night.

We have the draft combine results for all the players who have undergone testing since 2000, so with all that wealth of data we are able to see how the 2023 draft prospects stack up compared to their predecessors.

Our very own Alberto de Roa has crafted a tool designed to identify past players who bear the most resemblance to the 2023 prospects, using their draft measurement results as a basis for comparison.

These are the results for the top draft guys:

NBA Draft Predictor: The most likely pick for each team

Who will your team select in the upcoming draft? Although we can’t definitively answer that until July 22nd, we’re not entirely in the dark until then. Factoring in draft projections from our Aggregate Mock Draft and all known workouts, we have …

Who will your team select in the upcoming draft? Although we can’t definitively answer that until July 22nd, we’re not entirely in the dark until then. Factoring in draft projections from our Aggregate Mock Draft and all known workouts, we have created the Draft Predictor. This tool calculates the odds for every selection in the 2023 NBA Draft.

A comprehensive explanation of our methodology can be found here. In the meantime, here are the current results:

What is HoopsHype’s Draft Predictor?

We know that, at some point during the night of June 22, deputy commissioner Mark Tatum will announce who’s the last pick of the 2023 NBA draft. We’ll then have full certainty of how one of the busiest nights in the association fared. But until …

We know that, at some point during the night of June 22, deputy commissioner Mark Tatum will announce who’s the last pick of the 2023 NBA draft. We’ll then have full certainty of how one of the busiest nights in the association fared. But until then, we have to rely on mock drafts and other factors to have a better idea of how the draft will go. To make it easier, we introduce the 2023 NBA Draft Predictor.

To calculate the odds of a player landing in a specific draft position, we considered the mock drafts we monitor to develop our Aggregate Mock Draft… taking also into account their reliability in previous years. By factoring in each player’s placement in these mock drafts and the consensus on their potential draft range, we compute the odds for every prospect and draft position. Additionally, we take into account the pre-draft workouts reported for each player, making it slightly more likely that a franchise will draft a player who has worked out for the team.

There are a couple of points we need to address here. First, there is no pure analytical justification for why Victor Wembanyama should not have a 100 percent probability of being the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, aside from the “s*** happens” factor. The consensus among mock drafters and league insiders is just that overwhelming. However, we cannot discount unpredictable factors that might contribute to the non-zero chance that unforeseen circumstances could prevent Wembanyama from being the first draft pick. For this reason, we have arbitrarily assigned a 0.5 percent chance that the French phenom will not be the top pick. Of course, if you believe the “s*** happens” factor should actually be measured closer to 5 percent or 0.01 percent, you might also be correct.

Another apparent anomaly in the draft prediction odds involves a player being the favorite for more than one draft spot. In our first edition, the best example is Taylor Hendricks, who emerges as the front-runner for both the 10th and 11th draft picks. The reasoning behind this is that there is a general consensus that he will land in one of those two positions. Meanwhile, a prospect with similar potential, like Cason Wallace, has mock draft predictions ranging from the 7th to the 13th pick, making it much more challenging to pinpoint his exact draft position. Ultimately, both players are viewed as likely lottery picks, but the odds reflect that Hendricks’ draft range is considered more stable than Wallace’s.

Ranking: The players with the best winning percentage in NBA playoffs history

Klay Thompson and Draymond Green entered the 2023 postseason as the players with the best winning percentage in NBA playoffs history (minimum: 100 games played). That is no more after the Warriors’ second-round elimination against the Lakers. At No. …

Klay Thompson and Draymond Green entered the 2023 postseason as the players with the best winning percentage in NBA playoffs history (minimum: 100 games played). That is no more after the Warriors’ second-round elimination against the Lakers.

At No. 1 now is Ron Harper, a role player for both Bulls and Lakers, which is quite fitting given the list is filled with players from Chicago’s and L.A.’s dynasties at the top. (Not to mention Celtics and Warriors).

Global Rating rankings: The best players of the NBA playoffs

The 2023 NBA playoffs are in full swing, featuring 16 teams vying for the championship title. Based on our advanced Global Rating metric, we present the most outstanding players of the postseason so far.

The 2023 NBA playoffs are in full swing, featuring 16 teams vying for the championship title. Based on our advanced Global Rating metric, we present the most outstanding players of the postseason so far.

Analytics: Did Jim Schwartz inherit a better unit than initially thought?

You might be surprised at how successful the Cleveland defense was at forcing three-and-outs a year ago.

Despite how historically bad the Cleveland Browns were against the run defensively last year, no matter how many blown coverages they put on tape, the unit was at least top ten in one category: percentage of three-and-outs forced. The offense was similarly successful in avoiding three-and-outs in 2022 as well. Is Jim Schwartz inheriting a better defensive unit than initially thought?

Perhaps this is looking at the unit through rose-colored glasses, but maybe the unit was a few egregious blown plays away from being a decent unit. Now under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Schwartz, the talent may finally be maximized on the field. With the 2023 NFL Draft and free agency ahead of the Browns, they have to turn this unit around.

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Kevin Stefanski-led offense racked up a low number of three-and-outs in 2022

The offense stayed on the field at an efficient level in 2022. Can Kevin Stefanski stay the course for the Browns (and improve it) in 2023?

The offense of the Cleveland Browns was not perfect by any means, but they remained one of the more efficient offenses in the NFL. From getting top-10 efficiency play out of backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, to Nick Chubb being listed as the most valuable running back in the NFL, there is a lot to build off of heading into 2023. Another metric that favors the Browns is the low amount of three-and-outs the offense saw in 2022.

According to PFF’s Arjun Menon, the Browns were in the same tier as the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Green Bay Packers in terms of avoiding three-and-outs. Overall, the Browns went three-and-out on just 31 percent of their drives, which is in the upper half of the league, and tied for 12th in the NFL with the Bengals.

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