Cardinals’ magic number to clinch NFC West title remains at 4

Despite the loss to the Rams, the Cardinals still control the NFC West. We look at the many ways they can clinch the division.

The Arizona Cardinals missed an opportunity to clinch a postseason berth Monday night and they could have basically wrapped up the NFC West if they had beaten the Los Angeles Rams. However, the Rams beat Arizona 30-23 and pulled within one game of the Cardinals.

Arizona’s magic number to clinch the division is still four with four games remaining.

Any combination of Cardinals wins and Rams losses leading to four will give the Cardinals the division title.

These are their remaining schedules:

Cardinals

  • Week 15 on the road against the Detroit Lions
  • Week 16 at home on Christmas Day against the Indianapolis Colts
  • Week 17 on the road against the Dallas Cowboys
  • Week 18 at home against the Seattle Seahawks

Rams

  • Week 15 at home against the Seahawks
  • Week 16 on the road against the Minnesota Vikings
  • Week 17 on the road against the Baltimore Ravens
  • Week 18 at home against the San Francisco 49ers

However, the Cardinals can also reduce their magic number by an additional one because of tiebreakers.

The Cardinals and Rams tied their season series, so the next tiebreaker is division record.

The Cardinals are 4-1 in the NFC West and the Rams are now 2-2. A win by the Cardinals over the Seahawks in Week 18 or a loss by the Rams to either the Seahawks in Week 15 or the 49ers in Week 18 will take an extra game off the magic number. So if the Rams lose next weekend, even if the Cardinals were to lose to the Lions, their magic number would drop to two because of the Rams’ loss and clinching the division tiebreaker.

If the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks in Week 18 and the Rams beat both the Seahawks and 49ers, then the Cardinals would need to look to the next tiebreaker — common opponents.

The Cardinals will have 12 games against common opponents — four against the Seahawks and 49ers, four against the teams in the NFC North and four against the teams in the AFC South. Thus far, the Cardinals are 8-1 in those games and the Rams are 6-3 with three games remaining. The Cardinals have the Lions, Colts and Seahawks, while the Rams have the 49ers, Seahawks and Vikings.

The Seahawks and 49ers games don’t matter because if the Cardinals win or the Rams lose, the common opponent tiebreaker doesn’t come into play.

But if the Cardinals beat the Lions and Colts, or if the Rams lose to the Vikings and the Cardinals beat either the Lions or the Colts, then the Cardinals’ magic number will be reduced by one more because they will have clinched the common opponent record.

So the formula works like this for clinching:

  1. The magic number reduces by one for each Cardinals win or Rams loss.
  2. The magic number will be reduced by one additional if:
    • The Cardinals beat the Seahawks
    • The Rams lose to the Seahawks or 49ers
    • The Cardinals beat both the Lions and Colts
    • The Rams lose to the Vikings and the Cardinals beat either the Lions or Colts

The bottom line is the Cardinals still control the division. They just made things more difficult with the loss to the Rams. They have four games to get it to zero.

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