The Tampa Bay Rays (83-48) host the Boston Red Sox (75-58) Tuesday for the second of their four-game series at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa Bay won 12 of its last 13 games including a 6-1 win in the series opener against Boston Monday.
Season series: Rays lead 8-5.
Boston hadn’t announced its starting pitcher at the time of publishing.
LHP Ryan Yarbrough is Tampa Bay’s projected starter. He is 7-4 with a 4.57 ERA (128 IP, 65 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 18 starts and six relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 0 K in Tampa Bay’s 7-4 victory at the Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 25.
- Yarbrough is 0-1 against Boston this season with a 12.00 ERA (12 IP, 16 ER), 18 H, 3 BB and 8 K through two starts and one relief outing.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster (127 PA): 7.51 FIP with a .383 AVG, .466 wOBA, .616 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity.
Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rays -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105
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Prediction
Red Sox 7, Rays 5
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Red Sox (+125) for a tiny wager, if at all, because Boston’s lineup rakes against Yarbrough and is solid against left-handed pitching in general. The Red Sox are 11th in wRC+, ninth in wOBA and 12th in BB/K against lefty pitching.
I’m hesitant to sprinkle on the Red Sox because Boston is 4-11 straight up with a minus-37.7% return on investment (ROI) as a road underdog facing a left-handed starter. Also, the Red Sox bullpen is in the bottom-third of several advanced pitching metrics since the All-Star break.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX +1.5 (-165) for a tiny wager because the implied win probability of Boston’s run line price is 62.26%, but Boston has a 66.7% cover rate as a road underdog at 26-13 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because of Boston’s aforementioned production at the plate against Yarbrough and left-handed pitching.
Also, since the Red Sox haven’t officially announced their starter yet, I’m assuming it’s going to be a bullpen day, which isn’t a good thing for Boston.
On top of that, the Rays are 13-5 O/U when Yarbrough gets the start and the Over cashed in seven of the past 10 Red Sox-Rays meetings at Tropicana Field.
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