If you bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC North before the season started, you’re just three weeks away from a major pay day.
The Bengals moved into first place in the division after a Week 15 win over the Denver Broncos and a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Bengals and Ravens are both 8-6, but Cincinnati currently owns the tiebreaker thanks to its head-to-head win in Week 7.
Entering the season, the Bengals had the longest odds of any team in the AFC North to win the division at +2000 on Tipico Sportsbook, meaning a $10 bet would return $100. Now, they may be just a couple division matchups away from cashing in on those odds – starting with their game against the Ravens Sunday.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) and Cleveland Browns (7-7) are also still alive. However, difficult matchups this weekend against the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively, make it unlikely either makes progress soon. If one is to make a push, it’s more likely to happen when they face each other in Week 17. From there, the Steelers play the Ravens and Browns play the Bengals in Week 18. External help is needed even then unless one pulls off the upset this week.
| Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | |
| Bengals (8-6) | vs Ravens | vs Chiefs (10-4) | at Browns |
| Ravens (8-6) | at Bengals | vs Rams (9-4) | vs Steelers |
| Steelers (7-6-1) | at Chiefs | vs Browns | at Ravens |
| Browns (7-7) | at Packers (11-3) | at Steelers | vs Bengals |
The Ravens had overcome an injury-riddled season to set the pace in the division for most of the year, but those injuries finally caught up to them last week when quarterback Lamar Jackson was ruled out with a sprained ankle. They lost to the Packers despite Tyler Huntley filling in valiantly. The backup helped Baltimore come within a two-point conversion of pulling off a massive upset.
That effort from the Ravens is why Cincinnati can’t be written in as the division champ just yet. The Bengals are favored to beat Baltimore, as they should be, but the 2.5-point spread means it’s expected to be close.
The Ravens are banged up, but they entered the season with the shortest odds to win the division for a reason. They’re well-coached and deep. If they can nearly knock off one of the league’s best teams led by an MVP favorite – with a backup quarterback – they can certainly spar with an inconsistent and young Bengals team. Especially if their own MVP signal-caller is back in the lineup.
The Ravens’ best chance to beat the Bengals is to put up points. Their defense – where injuries have taken the biggest toll, especially in the secondary – is bad. They allow the second-most yards per game through the air and have the second-fewest interceptions. They rank in the bottom-three of yards allowed per pass attempt alongside the lowly Detroit Lions and New York Jets. Baltimore is also in the bottom five of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric for pass defense.
Head coach John Harbaugh said he’s hopeful Jackson practices Wednesday.
“We’ll see how the ankle responds. It is getting better,” Harbaugh said Monday.
Even with Jackson playing in their first meeting, the Bengals handed the Ravens their worst loss of the season. Baltimore held a lead into the third quarter of that game but allowed 28 unanswered points in a 41-17 loss. That 520-yard outburst remains Cincinnati’s most productive offensive game of the season. Joe Burrow threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns, and Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine rushed for over 100 yards combined and two touchdowns.
It would’ve been unfair to expect that type of production every week, but Cincinnati’s offense has barely been reliable since then. The team moved to 5-2 after that game, but have gone 3-4 since. Jackson has been similarly inconsistent. And Huntley remains a wild card if he plays, making this matchup anything but predictable, however important, on both sides.
Things only get more difficult for the loser. The Bengals have the Chiefs next on their schedule, the Ravens play the Los Angeles Rams. In the same way the Browns and Steelers are underdogs this week, neither the Bengals nor Ravens are likely to be favored in those matchups. So whoever comes out of Sunday’s game with a win has the best path to win the division.