Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders odds, picks and predictions

The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) meet the Washington Commanders (6-5) for a Week 12 battle at FedEx Field in Landover, Md. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Falcons vs. Commanders odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Falcons picked up a 27-24 win over the Chicago Bears last week, barely covering as a 2.5-point favorite. The Falcons have posted 5 wins this season, but just 1 in road games, although Atlanta is 3-2 ATS in those outings.

The Commanders have come alive, posting 5 wins in the past 6 games, while posting an impressive 5-0-1 ATS mark. It has used defense to turn things around, allowing 21 or fewer points in each of the past 7 games overall.

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Falcons at Commanders odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Falcons +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Commanders -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread: Falcons +3.5 (-108) | Commanders -3.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -113 | U: -107)

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Falcons at Commanders key injuries

Falcons

DT Jalen Dalton (toe) doubtful
LB Arnold Ebiketie (arm) questionable
OT Chuma Edoga (knee) questionable
TE Feleipe Franks (calf) questionable
RB Caleb Huntley (ankle) questionable

Commanders

LB Cole Holcomb (foot) out
WR Dax Milne (foot) out
CB Benjamin St. Juste (illness) out
TE Logan Thomas (rib) questionable
DE Chase Young (knee) questionable

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Falcons at Commanders picks and predictions

Prediction

Falcons 20, Commanders 18

Moneyline

The FALCONS (+170) are a solid value, as this team ranks 3rd in the NFL with 159.4 rushing yards per game. That’s going to be a problem for the Commanders (-200), especially with tackle machine and run stopper LB Cole Holcomb ruled out.

While Washington is 6th against the run, allowing just 103.1 yards per game on the ground, having Holcomb in street clothes is going to be a difference maker between 2 evenly matched teams.

Against the spread

Play FALCONS +3.5 (-108) if you just cannot pull the trigger and bet the underdog straight up on the money line.

It’s a tough play, as the Commanders -3.5 (-112) are a healthy 5-0-1 ATS across the past 6 games overall. But the Falcons should be able to move the ball on the ground with RBs Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and QB Marcus Mariota.

Over/Under

UNDER 40.5 (-107) is the lean here, but go lightly.

The Under is an impressive 20-6 in the past 26 games for the Falcons against teams with winning records, and 8-2 in the past 10 following a straight-up win.

The Under is also 8-2 in the past 10 games at home for the Commanders, while hitting at a 7-2 clip in the past 9 games overall. The Under has hit in 4 of the past 5 against losing teams, too.

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