The Atlanta Braves (59-56) have played their way into a tight battle atop the NL East. They’ll open a three-game series against the Washington Nationals (50-65) Friday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Braves RHP Charlie Morton (10-4, 3.52 ERA) makes his 24th start of the year. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 128 IP.
- Morton has put up a 2.47 ERA and 10.6 K/9 with just 5 homers allowed in 62 IP while dominating across his last 10 outings.
- His control has been a little suspect in nine road starts this year (3.8 BB/9) and he’s been helped a bit by a .256 BABIP. Regardless, Morton’s 3.10 ERA away from home is outstanding.
Nationals RHP Josiah Gray (0-0, 4.00 ERA) makes his fourth start and his fifth appearance. He has recorded 9 BB and 25 K while giving up 15 H and 6 HR in 18 IP.
- Gray was one of the big prizes the Nationals got in the blockbuster deadline deal with the Dodgers. He has already induced 15-plus swinging strikes in three of his four outings.
- Gray has gone five frames in each of his first two starts with Washington. He has allowed 2 ER in those 10 IP along with 12 K, including 10 last time out against this same Atlanta team.
Braves at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:52 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-112) | Nationals +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Nationals 3
Money line (ML)
The Nationals are reeling, having lost nine of their last 10 games coming into Friday. Morton has been lights out lately and tossed 6 scoreless innings against Washington in his last outing.
Gray should be able to keep his team close while he’s in there but likely won’t go more than 5 innings before turning it over to a bullpen with the league’s worst xFIP and K-BB% in August.
The BRAVES (-180) should come away with the victory.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Atlanta’s last eight road wins have been by more than 1 run. They’re facing a tough pitcher today but will also get several cracks at a weak Washington bullpen, and Morton has a chance to put up zeroes again.
A small play on BRAVES -1.5 (-112) is the call.
Over/Under (O/U)
When these two pitchers squared off last week, Atlanta came out on top 3-2.
Morton completely shut down the Washington offense, continuing his run of outstanding pitching while Gray has made quite the impression with his new team and allowed just 1 run against Atlanta in last week’s meeting.
Neither offense is likely to have a big day with these two starters going and UNDER 9.5 (-135) is the strongest play in this game.
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