The Miami Marlins (51-69) host the Atlanta Braves (64-56) Wednesday at loanDepot park for their series finale. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta is on a five-game winning streak which includes winning the first two games of this series by a combined score of 14-2.
Season series: Braves lead 8-7.
RHP Charlie Morton takes the hill for the Braves. He is 11-4 with a 3.49 ERA (134 IP, 52 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 24 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K at the Washington Nationals Friday.
- Morton is 1-1 against Miami this season with a 5.24 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.25 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB through four starts.
- vs. Marlins on current roster (67 PA): 3.00 FIP with a .190 batting average, .254 wOBA, .368 expected slugging percentage, 25.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity.
LHP Jesus Luzardo is on the rubber for the Marlins. He is 4-5 with a 7.52 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.71 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through nine starts and seven relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 14-10, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K Friday against the Chicago Cubs.
- Since joining Miami, Luzardo is 2-1 with a 9.20 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 17 H, 11 BB and 13 K across three starts.
Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-140) | Marlins +1.5 (+111)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Braves 9, Marlins 3
Money line (ML)
PASS even though Atlanta is the right side because the Braves (-250) are a little out of my price range.
However, MLB money line favorites of -180 or greater in the second half of the season have a high return on investment because the underdogs are mentally checked out of the season.
That said, I’d consider parlaying Atlanta’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout but I’m not laying it with the Braves to win outright.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES -1.5 (-140) for a half unit only because there’s a short total and I’m not amped on paying up for Atlanta’s expensive run line if oddsmakers are projecting a lower-scoring game. Also, we are getting the worst of the number.
There has been sharp line movement toward Atlanta; the -1.5 run line price opened at +110 before it was steamed up 50 cents on the dollar to the current price.
However, Atlanta is on a tear recently and has won 15 of its last 20 games; the Braves won 12 of those games by at least 2 runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-122) for a half unit even though it’s an obvious trap total set by the oddsmakers as we are seeing heavy reverse line movement toward the Under, which just doesn’t make sense to me. (That’s the point, though.)
Either way, Morton has been locked in since the summer started but he still has a plus-5 ERA against Miami this year and Luzardo grades terribly in several advanced pitching metrics.
My hesitation with backing the Over in this spot is because both teams have played more to the Under in their applicable situational trends and the weather forecast predicts double-digit winds blowing in from centerfield.
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