The Arizona Diamondbacks (5-8) and San Diego Padres (7-6) start an NL
West rivalry series Friday at Petco Park. First pitch is 9:10 p.m. ET. We analyze the Diamondbacks-Padres’ betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Diamondbacks at Padres: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Luke Weaver at RHP Zach Davies
Weaver’s breakthrough 2019 campaign (2.94 ERA in 12 starts) was halted by forearm tightness that shut down his season. The righty has had a rough go in his 2020 return, allowing six runs and failing to complete five innings in each of his two starts.
- The righty has a 4.41 ERA in four outings at Petco Park, and this happened before the Padres started rolling at the plate to the level they are in 2020. (More on that later.)
- Weaver has failed to get batters to chase pitches outside the zone so far, forcing a swing on just 23.9% of those offerings; in 2019, he posted 30.2%.
Davies has probably done exactly the minimum of what San Diego has wanted from him so far: He has posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1-1 record.
- The innings-eater hasn’t had a home start as a Padre yet, but he holds a serviceable 3.80 ERA in four appearances at Petco Park.
- Davies had an up-and-down 2019 but surrounded an injury-filled middle of the season with stretches of 7-0 (2.41 ERA) and a 2.92 ERA across his final eight outings.
Get some action on this game or any other matchup in the 2020 season with an MLB bet at BetMGM in NJ, IN, CO and WV. Bet now!
Diamondbacks at Padres: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Diamondbacks
- None that impact Friday action
Padres
- 1B Eric Hosmer (stomach illness) questionable
Diamondbacks at Padres: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Padres 5, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline (ML)
- Diamondbacks +105
- Padres -118
I trust Davies in his new home more than Weaver to find his form on the road against an improved offense — no matter how friendly toward pitching the park plays. BET Padres (-118).
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Padres to win returns a profit of $8.47.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Diamondbacks +1 (-150)
- Padres -1 (+125)
I’m not the biggest fan of the “.5” not being tacked on at the end, but so far, the Padres are 5-2 at home against the spread, per Covers.com, and the Diamondbacks are 2-4 straight-up on the road so far.
BET the Padres -1 (+125).
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 8 (-115)
- Under 8 (-106)
Because I predicted eight exact runs, neither these, nor the alternatives that dip lower, provides enough ROI. and the standard Over does not provide enough of a reward to chase. PASS.
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