It’s quite funny where we choose to attribute meaning in football. Countless treatises are written about why and how Team A or Player A is so good, so special. Someone will go to the film room and spend hours talking about a wonderful, well-thought-out scheme. Yet, in the end, one bounce of the odd-shaped ball and a juggernaut is eliminated, in shambles. One toe goes slightly out of bounds; a championship contender cleans out its lockers the following day.
After plenty of fortunate bounces and toes (ahem) going just “outside the boundary,” the 49ers are once again thinking Super Bowl. But they’re no slouch built entirely on luck. Given what they’ve accomplished of late, it’d be difficult to bet against them. They must feel invincible, and for a good reason.
Here’s why the 49ers will be hoisting the Lombardi trophy in Inglewood, California (do I say Los Angeles proper? Is it really fair?) on February 13.
How they got here
The 49ers (+3.5 against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship at Tipico) weren’t supposed to be in this year’s conference title game. At least, most prognosticators found them uninspired, and for a time, they weren’t incorrect. At midseason, Kyle Shanahan’s bunch was 3-5, without an identity. Starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was struggling (still kind of is!). The offense, on the whole, sputtered at the worst moments. At the same time, fellow divisional rivals Los Angeles and Arizona were humming along with a combined two losses, seemingly infallible.
Then the 49ers, the Super Bowl runner-up only two seasons ago, turned that switch on. San Francisco won seven of its last nine games, including a season sweep of their opponent this Sunday and another victory over the AFC title participant Bengals. It wasn’t pretty, and there was a bumpy road, but a 10-7 record sufficed.
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But while the 49ers snuck into the postseason field, they were no weak underdog. Anyone would be foolish to overlook a team with a top-10 offense (No. 6) and top-10 defense (No. 9), especially when it comes to the playoffs.
Ask the Cowboys, who had no answers in a Wild Card win where the 49ers pounded them up and down the field to the tune of 168 rushing yards. If Dallas was the favorite, you couldn’t tell with how the 49ers pushed them around.
The Packers are undoubtedly still reeling from an epic Divisional Round collapse (induced by a 49ers team who refused to go away, mind you), where they allowed 10 special teams points in roughly the final five minutes of the game.
Two teams. Two favorites. Both eliminated. And a team dead in the water right before the holiday season started is back in the NFC title game instead.
How they’ll win the Super Bowl
I can’t think of a more physical team among those left-standing than the 49ers. They’re going to beat up the Rams on Sunday, and if they win, they’ll be sure to leave more than a few bruises on either of the Chiefs or Bengals. A team with the No. 6 rushing offense (128.5 yards per game) and No. 7 rushing defense (100.2) is a bully, an old-school contrarian throwback when everyone else tries to sling the dang ball.
First-Team All-Pro Deebo Samuel was a machine for offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel this year. He’ll be the primary driver for any deeper 49ers’ run. Over 1,400 receiving yards. 365 rushing yards. 14 combined receiving and rushing touchdowns on 136 touches. He did it all. If the NFL MVP trophy weren’t merely “Best Quarterback,” Samuel would have received serious consideration. Instead, he’ll be the Thinking Man’s MVP (that’s me).
On defense, Nick Bosa (15.5 sacks) and Arik Armstead (six sacks) form one of pro football’s better pass-rushing duos. They’re backed (get it?) by linebacker Fred Warner, who many consider the premier athlete at the position.
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That McDaniel and defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans (two popular candidates for head coach openings this cycle) also make up arguably the best coaching staff along with Kyle Shanahan means the 49ers will probably have a distinct advantage on the sideline over the rest of their opponent(s).
A physical team that zigs when everyone zags and is well-coached. Those sorts of teams don’t often lose in January.
Or February, for that matter; the 49ers are +450 to win the Super Bowl per bettors with Tipico.
Why they won’t
Look, Jimmy Garoppolo is an attractive man. It’s true, and we need not lie to ourselves. However, to be precise, that sort of kind adjective is not how I would describe the way he plays quarterback.
Ineffective? Uninspiring? Any euphemisms like “game manager” or “leader” to describe a guy who can’t throw a backside dig without the ball hitting the dirt? Okay, sure. That’s how I would describe Jimmy Garoppolo, the quarterback. But again, not the man, who remains handsome.
Oh, wait, also: Liability.
Through two playoff games (and winz, whatever), Garoppolo has a total of 307 passing yards on 27 completions. More importantly, no touchdown passes. For perspective, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes threw for 188 yards after the two-minute warning last Sunday against Buffalo.
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Mind you, that limited sample size of attempts and yards is not because the 49ers want to run the ball 40 times a game. Shanahan, perhaps football’s best offensive mind, knows he can’t lean on a quarterback that would buckle under more responsibility. If he could, he would throw it more.
It’s 2022: Once again, sling the dang ball.
Never mind that the last time the 49ers did qualify for the Super Bowl, Garoppolo not only turned the ball over twice but missed more than a few downfield throws that would’ve otherwise put Kansas City away. It’s hard to imagine that much would change for a 30-year-old quarterback in a similar situation two years later. An old dog isn’t going to learn new tricks. Stop asking it to play fetch when it doesn’t even know the command.
But is an old and limited dog adequate for a championship? Probably not. The offense is otherwise championship-ready. So is the defense, even with a haphazard secondary. Anything but a steady dose of Samuel and running back Elijah Mitchell on offense and the 49ers’ playoff run likely ends sometime in the next three weeks.
And if they can’t get going, it’ll be another miserable off-season in the Bay Area.
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