The College Football Playoff format is totally different this year after expanding from four to 12 teams, and the new format features rules like the five highest-ranked conference champions automatically getting playoff berths, followed by the next seven highest-ranked teams.
While the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion is guaranteed a playoff spot as well, G5 teams aren’t limited to just one playoff team if there are multiple highly ranked squads. Additionally, Power Four conference champs all aren’t automatically handed a berth either.
As a result, depending on how the Week 14 and conference title games shake out, a Power Four conference champion could be left out of the 12-team playoff field. And that could set the Big 12 up to actually get left out of the CFP.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS: Oregon still reigns supreme
No. 16 Arizona State is the Big 12’s highest-ranked team in Week 14
In the College Football Playoff committee’s fourth rankings, the Big 12 has five teams among the top 25. Sounds great at first, until you realize the Sun Devils are the highest-ranked team at No. 16 with a 9-2 record.
The Mountain West’s Boise State at No. 11 with a win Friday over Oregon State moved the Broncos to 11-1 going into their conference title game, which they’re favored to win, per BetMGM. Should they win the Mountain West, there’s a strong chance they’ll be the fourth highest-ranked conference champ.
So who would be the fifth highest-ranked conference title winner?
Currently next in the Big 12 is No. 18 Iowa State (9-2), No. 19 BYU (9-2), No. 24 Kansas State (8-3) and No. 25 Colorado, which is now 9-3 after a dominant win Friday.
In conference play, Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado entered Week 14 with 6-2 records. If they all win this weekend, there will be a four-way tie at the top of the Big 12 standings at 7-2, and with the conference’s tiebreaker rules, that would put Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big 12 title game.
If the 6-2 Big 12 teams don’t all advance to 7-2 this weekend, things could get complicated for the Big 12 in the playoff race.
The chaos scenario that could keep the Big 12 out of the College Football Playoff
Of the four 6-2 teams in the Big 12 — Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado — going into this week’s games, only the Wildcats and Cyclones play each other in Week 14. Colorado beat Oklahoma State on Friday, and the Sun Devils face Arizona on the road Saturday.
The Big 12 will have at least a two-loss conference champion but it could be a three-loss champ. If Arizona State loses to Arizona, Iowa State loses to Kansas State *and* BYU loses to Houston, there could be a narrow path for a Group of Five conference champion, namely the American Athletic Conference winner, to be the fifth highest-ranked conference champ in the College Football Playoff rankings.
No. 17 Tulane losing to Memphis in Week 14 helps the Big 12…
…but only so much.
The Green Wave entered Week 14 with a 9-2 record but they’re now 9-3 after losing their regular-season closer to unranked Memphis, which is now 10-2. Army (9-1) and Tulane are still set to play for the American Athletic Conference title, meaning the conference will have a one-loss champ or a three-loss champ.
Would that be enough to jump the Big 12’s two- or three-loss conference champ in the College Football Playoff rankings? We’ll just have to wait and see.
If it’s three-loss Tulane, the AAC probably doesn’t pass the Big 12’s champion. But if one-loss Army blows out Tulane, the Black Knights would presumably re-join the College Football Playoff rankings and *could* end up ranked higher than the Big 12 champ.
And if the Mountain West and AAC champs are ranked higher than the Big 12 champ, the Big 12 likely would be on the outside looking in at the CFP this season.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 tag=421393249]