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The Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx meet Wednesday for Game 2 of their 1st-round best-of-3 series. Tip-off from Target Center is 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s WNBA odds around the Mercury vs. Lynx odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Playoff series: Lynx lead 1-0; Lynx won regular-season series 3-1
The Mercury lost 102-95 in Game 1, but they gave the No. 2 seed all it could handle. Phoenix shot 50.0% (37-of-74) from the floor, and an amazing 51.9% (14-of-27) from behind the arc to hang around most of the game. If not for a dismal 63.6% (7-of-11) mark from the free-throw line, things could have gotten really interesting.
As it stands, Phoenix covered as a 10-point underdog as the Over (158.5) connected. Natasha Cloud was sensational, going for 33 points, 10 assist and 4 3-pointers, while Diana Taurasi turned back to the clock for 21 points and 5 triples.
Minnesota hit 49.3% (34-of-69) from the field, and just 41.7% (10-of-24) from downtown, so Phoenix was slightly better in those areas. But, the Lynx went 96.0% (24-of-25) from the free-throw line. Rebounding was exactly even, and Minnesota had 1 fewer turnover.
The Lynx were led by Napheesa Collier, who went for a game-high 38 points, while adding 6 rebounds, 4 assists and a blocked shot. She finished 11-of-19 from the field, and 13-of-14 from the charity stripe.
Mercury at Lynx odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mercury +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Lynx -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mercury +8.5 (-105) | Lynx -8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 160.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mercury at Lynx picks and predictions
Prediction
Lynx 89, Mercury 82
Moneyline
The Lynx (-450) will cost 4 1/2 times your potential return, if you want to be ultra safe and not worry about the points after the non-cover in Game 1. That’s not a recommended betting strategy, however, either as a standalone wager or a multi-leg parlay. It’s too much risk, and not enough reward.
PASS.
Against the spread
The MERCURY +8.5 (-105) are fighting to extend their season, as they try to get this best-of-3 series back to Phoenix for a decisive Game 3. The Merc are full of proud veterans, and this is a talented team.
Taurasi is a grizzled veteran who knows what it takes to win in the playoffs, as does Brittney Griner. Cloud is likely to take a step back after catching fire in Game 1, but Kahleah Copper had an off game, and she can easily go off. Don’t discount this team because of its sub-.500 regular-season record.
Minnesota is just 1-3 ATS in the past 4 games at home. It’s not hard to see it failing to cover again, but it’s hard to see it losing outright. The Lynx have just been too good in the 2nd half of the season, while the Merc has been disjointed and erratic.
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Over/Under
OVER 160.5 (-115) might be the best play on the board after Game 1.
These teams combined for 197 points on a total of just 158.5, comfortably cashing high with plenty of time to spare.
We should see a bit of a regression to the mean. However, the Lynx have cashed high in 4 in a row with Collier and Kayla McBride on the floor. That dynamic duo rested in the regular-season finale against Los Angeles with nothing to play for, so we’ll toss that game out.
The Mercury has gone high in 4 of the past 5 games since Sept. 13, and really, Seattle was resting players in the finale which went Under, too, so that game can be discarded, too. These are 2 teams ticking off a lot of Over results, and we should get another in Game 2.
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