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The Arizona Diamondbacks (4-4) and Atlanta Braves (4-2) battle Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET as they continue a 3-gme series at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0
The Diamondbacks lost Friday’s opener — their 1st road game this season — by a 6-5 score to the Braves in 10 innings. They lost to the New York Yankees by the same score in 11 innings Wednesday and tote a 2-game losing skid into Saturday’s contest.
The Braves were down 5-2 late in Friday’s game, but they rallied with 1 run in the 8th inning, then 2 in the 9th to knot the score at 5-5. The Atlanta bullpen pitched 6 scoreless frames in the comeback.
Diamondbacks at Braves projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Max Fried
Pfaadt (1-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has registered a 1.00 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 5 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 win vs. Colorado Rockies Sunday
- Owns a 5.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP across 101 career innings
Fried (0-0, 40.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 2nd start this season. He owns a 7.50 WHIP, 40.5 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 through 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 0.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 12-4 win at Philadelphia Phillies last Saturday
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0, 2.50 ERA (18.0 IP, 5 ER), 20 H, 4 BB, 15 K
- Has clocked a 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 140 career games
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Diamondbacks at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/ Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (+100) | Braves -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Diamondbacks at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
PASS: the Braves are whittled down to a pick ’em on the RL, and there is less juice to wade through.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves went 52-29 at home last year, logging a plus-102 run differential along the way. Overall, they won 33 games by 5 or more runs.
They are 8-3 across their last 11 games against the D-backs; 6 of those 8 wins have been by multiple runs.
Pfaadt was frequently barreled up a year ago when he posted a 5.72 ERA. In the small-sample department, he registered an 8.66 ERA across 4 starts made on 5 days’ rest, which is his interval coming into this turn at Atlanta.
Fried is a consistent sort, so we should expect a solid bounce-back after his troubled season debut. He’s tough on lefties and righties alike, which is key because he will likely see a slew of right-handed bats Saturday.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a better tag here, with less outlay for us as bettors. BACK THE BRAVES -1.5 (-108).
Over/Under
The last 17 Atlanta home games against Arizona have seen the Under cash 11 times.
The analytics indicate both offenses being out too far over their skis through the early going. Both, for instance, have big batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures with runners in scoring position.
TAKE THE UNDER 9 (-110).
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