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The Cincinnati Reds (4-3) welcome the New York Mets (2-5) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch in the 2nd game of the 4-game series is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0
The Reds lost 3-2 Friday, scoring in the first and last inning and going scoreless in the middle 7. Cincinnati has lost 2 of its last 3 and is 2-2 at home. The Reds sit 4th in the National League Central and are 3-4 against the spread (ATS).
The Mets, who have the highest payroll in the MLB, have high expectations but were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers to start the season and lost their first 5. New York has won 2 in a row. It is 1-6 ATS on the season and 1-0 straight up and ATS on the road.
Mets at Reds projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Nick Martinez
Severino (0-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 2.20 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 5 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 11 H, 3 ER (6 R), 1 HR, 6 K in a 7-6 home loss to the Brewers
- 2023 road splits: 1-6, 8.14 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 44 ER — 13 HR), 20 BB, 45 K in 10 starts (11 appearances)
Martinez (0-0, 5.40 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 5 IP.
- Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER (3 R), 1 HR, 3 K in a 6-5 home win over the Washington Nationals
- 2023 home splits: 3-1, 2.60 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 18 ER — 5 HR), 21 BB, 65 K in 4 starts (33 appearances)
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Mets at Reds odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Reds -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+142) | Reds +1.5 (-176)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Mets at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
BET REDS (-116).
Cincinnati has lost 2 games this season, and it has won each game following, beating the Nats 6-5 after a 6-7 loss and the Phillies 4-1 after a 9-4 loss. The Reds should also have a pitching advantage given how poor Severino was both in his first start of the season and on the road last year.
The Mets are 2-5 straight up and haven’t won with any consistency. They have scored 3 or fewer in all but 1 game. Expect Cincinnati to bounce back and take REDS (-116).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The run line offers no good value here as the Mets are too risky as an ATS favorite while the Reds are too expensive, having lost 2 of their last 3 both ATS and straight up.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-122).
The Mets are 2-5 O/U on the season and have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games. New York has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games and has allowed more than 5 just twice.
The Reds might be 5-2 O/U but have gone Under in 2 straight games and have failed to score more than 4 runs in 3 straight. They have held their opponent to 4 runs in their last 2 games.
Take UNDER 9.5 (-122).
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