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The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Bristol Motor Speedway for the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Saturday night. The green flag is set to drop shortly after 7:30 p.m. ET (USA Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race: What you need to know
- RFK Racing driver Chris Buescher picked up the victory last fall in the Bristol night race, getting the win from the 20th starting position
- Buescher’s starting spot of 20th was the lowest for a winner on the Bristol pavement since Kevin Harvick started 24th and won the night race Aug. 21, 2016
- Harvick has won 3 times at Bristol, posting 14 top-5 finishes in 42 Cup starts (33.3% of his starts), while leading 1,209 laps with a 13.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
- Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 checkered flags at Bristol, while posting 14 top-5 runs, 19 top-10 finishes and a circuit-best 2,592 laps led in “The Last Great Colosseum”
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott has never won at Bristol, but he leads all active drivers with a 12.3 AFP with 4 top-5 finishes and 6 top-10 runs in 12 career Cup starts with 0 DNFs
- Michael McDowell has had his issues at Bristol in his Cup career, posting a 28.8 AFP in 23 starts with 0 laps led and 8 DNFs
- Aric Almirola has also struggled in his career at BMS, managing a dismal 24.0 AFP in 25 career Cup starts with just 39 laps led and 8 DNFs
- TrackHouse Racing driver Ross Chastain is another driver who hasn’t fared well over the years in Thunder Valley, going for just 1 top-10 finish with 0 laps led and a 23.3 AFP in 6 career Cup starts
- RFK Racing driver Brad Keselowski has managed 3 career wins with 6 top-5 finishes, 1,013 laps led and 0 DNFs in 24 Cup starts with a 16.7 AFP
- Ford has won 3 of the past 4 Cup starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, while Chevrolet has managed to win just once in the past 9 starts. Ford and Toyota have 4 wins apiece in the same span
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2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:44 p.m. ET.
KYLE BUSCH (+1600) just seems to be heads and tails better than any other driver on the pavement at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has 8 career Cup victories at the track, with the nearest active drivers (Harvick and Keselowski) with 3 wins each.
While Busch was a dismal 18th last fall in the night race, he is just too great of a value at this price.
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2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Long shot
CHASE BRISCOE (+10000) has 2 career Cup starts under his belt at Bristol. He has finished 13th and 14th in those outings, which is tremendous production based on this price to win. He is worth a roll of the dice as he is one of the best long shots to get checkers.
Even a CHASE BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH (+340) — offered at FanDuel Sportsbook — for a chance to more than triple up is worth a shot. That’s a great value.
2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Race props
TOP MANUFACTURER: CHEVROLET (+140) — from FanDuel Sportsbook — is a strong play at plus-money. Busch has won 8 times at Bristol, albeit in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. However, it’s the driver that makes the difference, not the machine.
And it isn’t just Busch, but you get the Hendrick stable of drivers, too, including Elliott and his circuit-best AFP at Bristol as well as Kyle Larson.
KYLE BUSCH (-130) OVER RYAN BLANEY is a tremendous play in head-to-head matchups. Again, Busch has the 8 checkered flags, and a 13.7 AFP in 33 career Cup starts in Thunder Valley, and he has 2,592 laps led.
On the flip side, Blaney has never won at the track in 13 career Cup starts, while posting just 2 top-5 finishes and 493 laps led with 2 DNFs. This is a slam-dunk play, and I’d go rather aggressively on this prop.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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