The Chicago Cubs (53-51) and St. Louis Cardinals (46-60) meet Sunday for the finale of a 4-game NL Central set in St. Louis. First pitch at Busch Stadium is slated for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 8-4
The Cubs head into this game seeking a 4-game sweep. They’ve outscored the Redbirds 15-6 in the series and have won 8 consecutive games since July 21. Over that stretch, the Cubs offense has 13 HRs and as many stolen bases while averaging 6.75 runs per game.
The Cardinals visited Wrigley Field for a 4-game series last weekend and dropped 3 of 4. They won the opener in that set, so they’ve dropped 6 in a row to the Cubs since.
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Cubs at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. LHP Steven Matz
Hendricks (4-4, 3.45 ERA) is making his 13th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 70 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-3 win over Chicago White Sox Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 3-1, 2.82 ERA in 38 1/3 IP
- Last 5 vs. Cardinals: 4-0. 1.93 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (2021-22)
Matz (1-7, 4.34 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 87 IP in 22 games (14 starts).
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 0-4, 3.89 ERA in 41 2/3
- Career vs. Cubs: 1-2, 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 IP (4 starts)
- Owns a 2.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP across his last 23 IP
Cubs at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Cubs 4
Moneyline
This summer, the NL Central looks like a revolving door with some of the best intermediate-term overall team opportunities, 2-to-3-week stretches where a team is just a solid overall fade or play nearly every day.
An overcooked Cincinnati Reds team was the 1st club through that door. A June surge was not substantiated by support figures, and the Reds became a team to bet against. Analytic real-vs.-expected bettors were rewarded with a July slide. The Cubs and their scoring profile — scoring more than they allowed — were a different kind of opportunity when the scuffled late in the 1st half and were somehow 7 games under-.500 (38-45) on July 3. They have been a solid bet-for in the 2nd half, where so far they are 11-4.
The tricky thing about this game is that the Cardinals may well be the 3rd NL Central team to go through that door. The Cards allow too many runs and are not worthy of a .500 record, but their current mark is off a few beats compared to the club averaging 4.72 RPG while allowing 5.00. Look for some St. Louis bounce-back this August, especially in games where pitching value is in the Cards’ column.
Add some pitching leverage (playing Matz, fading Hendricks, and favoring a St. Louis bullpen that has been undone by a .321 batting average on balls in play) and an early line move in overreach territory, and Sunday’s contest has value on the home side.
BACK THE CARDINALS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
Avoid the extra juice here. PASS.
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Over/Under
The 2 starts bring in some marginal-rate figures (home runs to fly balls, averages on balls in play, clutch situational “luck”) that swing both ways — favoring Matz/St. Louis and chipping away at Hendricks/Chicago.
That calls for a meet in the middle and PASS.
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