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The Baltimore Orioles (61-38) will open a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (53-46) on Monday. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since Phillies took 2 of 3 games in 2021
The red-hot Orioles beat the Tampa Bay Rays 5-3 on Sunday and won 3 of 4 in the series. Baltimore has 12 wins in their last 15 games and they now boast the best record in the American League. They lead the AL East by 2 games over the Rays.
The Phillies had dropped 4 games in a row before winning an extra-inning affair 8-5 against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday. In a tight NL Wild-Card race they are currently on the outside looking in, but they are within 1 game of all 3 teams occupying those spots.
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Orioles at Phillies projected starters
RHP Dean Kremer vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Kremer (10-4, 4.80 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 108 2/3 innings.
- Has a 4.04 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 49 IP over 9 starts on the road
- Allowed just 11 HR in 125 1/3 IP in 2022, but has already surrendered 22 HR in 108 2/3 IP (1.8 HR/9) so far this year
Sanchez (0-3, 3.06 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.
- Has made 5 of his 7 starts at home where he has a 3.91 ERA and 23/5 K/BB in 25 1/3 IP
- Has shown excellent control in the majors this season, but owns a career 4.2 BB/9 in his minor-league career, including a 5.3 mark in 10 appearances (8 starts) at Triple-A this season
Orioles at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Orioles at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Baltimore has been on quite a run and they have overtaken the Rays in the AL East. They are 31-18 on the road, the 2nd-best mark in the league.
Sanchez has been pitching well, but has a history of poor control and is facing a tough test against a Baltimore offense that ranks 6th in wRC+ vs lefties and 2nd in BB% against them. Back the ORIOLES +105.
Run line/Against the spread
This looks like an evenly-matched game that should be close, but -185 is a steep price to pay for +1.5 runs. There is better value elsewhere so PASS on the run line.
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Over/Under
Kremer has had his ups and downs but has overall been pretty mediocre throughout the season and has had some HR issues. On the other side, Sanchez has been pitching over his head, as he has benefited from a .263 BABIP and has uncharacteristically shown excellent control.
Baltimore ranks 4th in the league in runs per game on the road while the Phillies are 11th in runs per game at home. Neither offense is likely to get shut down in this game, and look for this total to push OVER 9.5 +100.
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