Sorry, Jack Handy isn’t walking through that door and my Saturday nights are only occasionally live anymore. The NFL draft is now in the rear-view mirror but the evaluation period of what the Dallas Cowboys accomplished has only just begun. There’s a fun discussion to be had about when one knows whether or not a draft is successful.
Next-day grades are fun, but irrelevant, but it also feels like a stretch to say one doesn’t know how well a draft class is until after three years. Three years is the average NFL career. It feels like the sweet spot for evaluating a draft is really around the midpoint of Year 2. If that prospect isn’t an impact player by Week 9 or so of the second season, then he’s more than likely a wasted pick.
Certainly, players can bloom after that point, but when talking about a player taken in the first four rounds, one would have to consider a guy who doesn’t click until Year 3 as a bad investment. Rookie deals are only for four seasons. Fifth-year options for first rounders are nice in ability to keep a star, but are expensive without deferring cap hit.
The cheap labor portion of all rookie deals is four years. You can forgive wasting one of those years, but 50% of the wholesale portion of the acquistion? That’s too much.
So mark your calendars. If the players in this class aren’t popping off the screen by November 2024, get your report cards ready.
Now here’s 10 other things, more specific to the Cowboys, this past weekend has me thinking about.