The Missouri Tigers (24-8) look to defeat a second top-20 team in 2 days when they take on the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (27-5) Saturday in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Tip from Bridgestone Arena is at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Missouri vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Missouri toppled No. 19 Tennessee 79-71 Friday in the quarterfinals and Alabama trounced Mississippi State 72-49 Friday to punch its ticket to the semifinals.
The Tigers will have revenge on their mind as they lost 85-64 to the Crimson Tide as 6-point home underdogs on Jan. 21.
Missouri is ranked 21st nationally with 80.1 points per game, but Alabama comes in ranked 6th with 82.8 points per game. The key difference will be on defense; Missouri allows 74.8 points per game (299th) while Alabama allows just 69.5 points per game (155th).
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Missouri vs. Alabama odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Missouri +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Alabama -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Missouri +9.5 (-115) | Alabama -9.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 157.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Missouri vs. Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 80, Missouri 68
Moneyline
PASS.
Both teams enter off solid wins in their tournament openers, but only the Crimson Tide come in playing for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
However, Alabama (-475) is too much to wager on any straight bet. Alabama should win, but you should never risk nearly 5 times your potential return on a moneyline wager — especially when Missouri has the offensive prowess to pull off an upset.
Against the spread
BET ALABAMA -9.5 (-105).
Although Missouri has the offense, the issue is the defense. Ranked just inside the top 300 in points allowed per game, facing the 6th-ranked, motivated Alabama offense does not bode well for the Tigers keeping this close.
F Brandon Miller will be able to put up points and the surrounding cast will follow suit as Alabama should roll to a victory and covers the 9.5-point spread.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 154.5 (-110).
Despite both teams being in the top 25 nationally in scoring, this total is still a bit too high.
The Crimson Tide were able to hold Missouri to just 64 points on its home court in January and should be able to hold down the Tigers again here.
The scores tend to be a bit lower when the Tigers play good teams, hitting the Under in 6 of their last 8 games against a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under is 6-1 in Alabama’s last 7 games following an ATS win and 4-1 its last 5 games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER 154.5 (-110).
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