The No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers (19-4, 11-3 ACC) visit the Louisville Cardinals (3-22, 1-13) Wednesday. Tip at KFC Yum! Center is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Virginia vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Virginia benefited from a blown call to reach overtime against Duke Saturday before emerging with a 69-62 victory, covering as a 6-point favorite. Its reward for that victory is the chance to play the worst team in the power conferences — Louisville.
The Cardinals have 3 wins this season and while all of them have come at home a 4th victory is not likely on Wednesday against one of the top teams in the ACC. Louisville, whose only win in its last 10 games was a 68-58 win over Georgia Tech on Feb. 1, has struggled under coach Chris Mack. This team has issues in every aspect of the game, scoring just 64.0 points per game (331st) and allowing 76.1 points per game (325th).
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Virginia at Louisville odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Virginia -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100) | Louisville +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
- Against the spread (ATS): Virginia -15.5 (-110) | Louisville +15.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 127.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Virginia at Louisville picks and predictions
Prediction
Virginia 70, Louisville 50
Moneyline
PASS.
Virginia (-1400) is the far better team, and the odds bare this out. The value is also not there on Louisville (+700) and no one should wager 14 times their potential return on the home side.
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Against the spread
BET VIRGINIA -15.5 (-110).
Although this is a difficult line to fathom with the slow pace Virginia likes to play, its defense is that good and Louisville’s offense is that terrible.
Virginia has gone 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games against teams with a losing home record. The Cavaliers are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Louisville is 1-6 ATS against teams with winning road records and the favorite in this series has covered in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 127.5 (-110).
The last meeting of these teams ended with a 51-50 Virginia win last season on March 9. This game will be close to the same, at least for the Cardinals on the offensive end.
Virginia ranks 10th nationally with 60.4 points allowed per game and will hold down Louisville. With Virginia wanting to play slow, this game has the chance to not get Over 110 points, let alone 127.5.
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