The Cleveland Browns mortgaged their future for a player they weren’t sure would play for them in 2022. Cleveland, in need of the kind of quarterback capable of changing the trajectory of its tragic franchise, traded three first round picks for Deshaun Watson, a player then under investigation following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior.” Once the Browns had him, they gave him the largest fully guaranteed contract in league history thanks to a five-year, $230 million extension.
Watson sat out the first 11 games of the season due to a league mandated suspension — he also gave up $5 million in fines to go along with approximately $600,000 in game checks. This set him up for a return to Houston to face his former team in Week 13, then a state of Ohio showdown with the rival Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14. With a little luck, a revitalized Watson could lead his team back into playoff contention.
That is not what Deshaun Watson has done. In the small sample size of two games he’s been less valuable than the longtime backup he replaced in the lineup.
Expected points added (EPA) is an NFL stat that effectively assigns a point value to each play based on whether it increases or decreases a team’s chance of scoring. In 11 games, Jacoby Brissett was responsible for 54.5 EPA for a 4-7 team. In two games, Watson is at -5.1.
He has yet to finish a Sunday with a positive EPA.
In two games, his offense has scored exactly one touchdown. Watson’s arrival was supposed to serve as a beacon for a lost passing offense and present stability behind center. Advanced stats love Brissett because he puts up solid numbers and because those stats don’t prioritize backbreaking turnovers like the ones the former starter was consistently responsible for in the final five minutes of game time. Watson’s presence was supposed to bring composure to the lineup and win the 50/50 games Brissett could not.
But when Watson got the ball back in a 23-10 game with his team in desperate need of a score, he entirely blanked safety Jessie Bates III and dug Cleveland’s hole even deeper.
Jessie lookin' like a receiver 😮💨#ProBowlVote x #JessieBates#CLEvsCIN | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/SYKU0bv7Xx
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 11, 2022
In two games, Watson has more interceptions than touchdown passes. He’s completed just three of nine attempts inside the red zone, connecting with his guys in the end zone as many times as opposing safeties (one each).
He’s needed 64 passes to throw for 407 yards. That 6.36 yard per attempt average would rank 32nd among all qualified starting quarterbacks, between Carson Wentz and Kenny Pickett. Touchdowns aren’t everything, but his 1.6 percent touchdown rate is worse than any full-timer but Pickett. In that very small sample, the former Pro Bowler trails his journeyman fill-in in just about every statistical category.
The Cleveland offense averaged 5.6 yards per play and 7.0 yards per pass with Brissett at the helm. In the limited scope of Watson appearances those numbers are down to 4.9 and 6.3. While some of that can be attributed to the rising Bengals’ defense, the Browns also had four quarters against a hopeless Texans team to inspire confidence and failed miserably.
This is grim, but there’s reason to believe improvement is coming. Watson didn’t have to do much to beat the Texans because his defense and special teams put up three touchdowns on their own. He was asked to do more against Cincinnati. While it wasn’t great, there were signs of life. He attempted 10 passes that traveled at least 13 yards downfield and completed six of them for 125 yards (but, unfortunately, also the Bates interception above).
Watson was also more efficient as a runner Sunday, than he was in his debut. He only ran the ball six times but gained 33 yards — a step up from his seven carry, 21-yard performance vs. the Texans’ 28th-ranked run defense. While there were a couple read-option plays in there, the majority were scrambles that turned bad situations into first downs with a combination of speed, balance and power:
Unfortunately for Cleveland, this didn’t translate into consistent points. The Bengals shut down the Browns’ potent run attack — 2.8 yards per carry in Week 14 — and put the onus on Watson’s shoulders. He failed to step up and now Cleveland is 5-8 and holding onto a thin wisp of playoff hope.
The upcoming schedule will do the embattled QB zero favors as he reintegrates himself into the league. Next up are the Baltimore Ravens and their ninth-ranked defense, then the 15th-ranked New Orleans Saints, 10th-ranked Washington Commanders and 13th-ranked Pittsburgh Steelers. If the 11th-ranked Bengals can hold Cleveland to a single touchdown, so can they.
The Browns have to hope the modest improvement Watson showed Sunday are the beginning of a trend, even if it was an ultimately forgettable performance. It’s easy to handwave away two bad games, especially after 700 days away from the game. But it’s reasonable to be worried when a guy who was one of the league’s best quarterbacks in 2020 looks like a borderline top 30 guy.
2022 was always going to be a lost season for Cleveland. Watson’s only recourse is to generate excitement for the future and hope his play on the field can paper over some of his failures off it. He’s been unable to do that so far. He only has four games left to prove he was worthy of a reckless contract gamble by a desperate owner.
It might happen. But if it doesn’t — if this version of Watson persists — it will be yet another truly Browns gamble in an AFC North where teams have stacked profits from Cleveland’s failures.
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