When realignment theater became the central topic in college sports this past summer, following USC’s announced move to the Big Ten, one of the big surprises in the first few weeks of speculation and analysis was that Oregon’s value to Fox Sports and the Big Ten was not as high as many people thought.
A Fox Sports executive estimated Oregon’s annual value at $30 million. Stanford’s value was $45 million. How many people thought that was the case?
That same Fox executive offered another surprising line of analysis a few days ago.
Bob Thompson, an Oregon graduate, is that very same Fox executive. He believes that “staying where you’re at” is the best move for Oregon and Washington, given the soon-to-expand College Football Playoff.
Moving to the Big Ten doesn’t add up on a financial level for Oregon and Washington, according to Thompson, who has negotiated numerous media rights deals with college conferences.
I think Big 12 gets 10 to 15% more than Pac 12 on a per school basis. Just a lot more rabid fans in total in the Southwest. Ratings are good and BYU brings huge following. KU and KState ranked,Tx and OU aren’t. Who would’ve ever thought??
— Bob Thompson (@rltsports) October 4, 2022
“The expansion of the (playoff) and the fact there are likely going to be automatic bids for a number of conference champions is great for the Pac-12,” Thompson said on Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast.
Notre Dame is reportedly the only school mentioned directly in the subsection of the Big Ten’s media rights contract that deals with expansion.
Here’s more from Jon Wilner at the Wilner Hotline:
“The only one that pencils out … is Notre Dame,” Thompson said. “And I don’t think that if Oregon and Washington — and even throw in Stanford and Cal, if they went out there — that they’re going to get a full share.”
The Big Ten contract, which was announced in August, is set to pay each school more than $70 million in the second half of the decade, thanks to a three-pronged partnership with Fox, NBC and CBS.
In order for West Coast teams to earn a full share, the networks must be willing to pay them approximately $70 million per year over the life of the seven-year contract.
In other words, adding Oregon, UW, Stanford and Cal to create a western division would cost Big Ten media partners an additional $280 million per year for seven years — or $2 billion in total.
If Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal are not assigned $70 million annual valuations by the TV networks, there would be two options: 1) Pay every school the same amount, which would be less than the $70 million the 16 are scheduled to earn; or 2) Pay the four new members less than the other 16.
“They’d have to come out at a discount,” said Thompson, who negotiated media deals with the Pac-12 during his tenure at Fox Sports. “And it would be a significant discount, probably not a whole lot more than you’re going to get staying in the Pac-12.”
They need to get a deal done to provide some stability to the conference. Adding SDSU makes sense. Don't know beyond that for adds. "Holding out" is a risky move. Just get it done. https://t.co/rZkd1ObGht
— Bob Thompson (@rltsports) October 3, 2022
[mm-video type=video id=01gdgjrs19kr2nj8va4j playlist_id=none player_id=01f5k5y2jb3twsvdg4 image=https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/video/thumbnail/mmplus/01gdgjrs19kr2nj8va4j/01gdgjrs19kr2nj8va4j-7c192a5f4bb7cbc6bb10c2a869899e1e.jpg]
[listicle id=49470]