The Cincinnati Reds (27-51) welcome the New York Mets (49-30) to Great American Ball Park for the 1st of a 3-game series Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting of 2022. The teams split 6 games in 2021.
The Reds snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 4-3 win Sunday over the Atlanta Braves to avoid a sweep. Cincinnati has won 3 of its last 7 after a historically bad start to the season.
The Mets, on the other hand, sit atop the NL East. New York most recently won 2 of 3 against the Rangers at home. The Mets rank 4th in the MLB in batting average (.256).
Mets at Reds projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Walker (6-2, 2.72 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 72 2/3 IP.
- A 1st-time All-Star last season, he’s almost cut his ERA in half from 4.47 last season. He’s allowed just 3 HRs on the season.
- No-decision in Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Houston Astros with 7 1/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K. The Mets are just 7-6 in his 13 starts.
Greene (3-9, 5.72 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 74 IP.
- The high-potential 22-year-old former 1st-round pick has allowed a league-high 20 HRs. Cincinnati is just 3-12 in his 15 starts.
- Has allowed at least 3 ERs in each of his last 3 starts while under 6 innings in each. In Wednesday’s 8-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs he allowed 3 ER in 4 IP.
Mets at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Mets at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Reds 2
Money line
AVOID.
The Mets may be the top team in the NL East, but they are just 23-17 on the road this season.
At -170, I would avoid betting them to win outright. Couple Greene’s recent performances with the Reds’ awful bullpen, and Cincinnati to win at +135 isn’t worth the wager.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN METS -1.5 (-105).
The Reds scored just 1 run against Max Fried to open their series with Atlanta and totaled just 6 runs in the 3 games. Cincinnati’s offense just hasn’t been there as of late.
Greene is a strikeout-heavy pitcher and will be facing the team with the 5th-fewest strikeouts this season.
The Reds are 7-8 against the run line with Greene starting and have lost 4 of their last 5 by multiple runs. The Mets have won 4 of Walker’s last 8 starts by multiple runs.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9.5 (-102).
The Reds have gone under the projected total in 2 straight games and only scored 1 run the game prior.
With starting SS Kyle Farmer day-to-day as well, there’s not much reason to back their offense. Similarly, the Mets might be facing a pitcher that allows home runs, but they rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs.
New York has scored 4 or fewer in 6 straight and under 6 in 10 straight. Their bats aren’t red hot coming into this series either. Expect a low-scoring battle, especially with Walker on the mound.
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