The Toronto Blue Jays (33-23) head to Comerica Park Friday to start a 3-game set with the Detroit Tigers (23-33). First pitch for the series opener set for a 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto is 7-3 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox, a 2-1 series loss to the Minnesota Twins and a 2-1 series win over the Kansas City Royals.
Detroit is 6-4 SU in the last 10, winning an interleague set at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday-Wednesday after being swept by the New York Yankees, which followed the Tigers taking 4 of 5 games from the Twins.
Friday’s Blue Jays-Tigers meeting will be their 1st of the year.
Blue Jays at Tigers projected starters
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Elvin Rodriguez
Berrios is 4-2 with a 5.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 56 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Win, 12-3, Saturday at home vs. the Minnesota Twins with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 13 K.
- 2021 vs. the Tigers: 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA (20 IP, 6 ER, 7 R), 1.20 WHIP and 2.22 K/BB rate in 3 starts for the Blue Jays and, his previous team, the Twins.
Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA (16 IP, 18 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 3 starts vs. the Twins (road), Cleveland Guardians (home) and the Yankees (road) and 1 bullpen appearance.
- This is Rodriguez’s rookie season and he’s never faced the Blue Jays.
Blue Jays at Tigers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Blue Jays -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (-135) | Tigers +1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Blue Jays at Tigers picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 6, Blue Jays 5
Money line
SPRINKLE on the TIGERS (+180) with the plan of hitting their RL harder since the Blue Jays (-230) are overpriced because Berrios is on the hill.
Berrios inked a fat, new extension this offseason but has underperformed thus far. He ranks 346th out of 356 tracked pitchers in barrel rate (per Statcast) and grades in the 5th percentile or worse in expected ERA, expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line.
Detroit’s RL is the sharper wager but there’s some value in the TIGERS (+180).
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Run line/Against the spread
BET 1 unit on the TIGERS +1.5 (+110).
The Blue Jays are just 6-10 RL as road favorites while being 10-6 SU.
Not only is Berrios getting too much love but Toronto’s bullpen is mediocre. The Blue Jays relievers have a 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and the 5th most blown saves (10).
Detroit’s bullpen has the 2nd-best ERA (2.78) and WHIP (1.09) and should be rested since Thursday was an off-day. The Tigers are 4-2 RL when playing after 1 day off.
Even if Rodriguez gets raked by Toronto’s lineup or Detroit’s lineup doesn’t hit Berrios, the TIGERS +1.5 (+110) could still sneak through the backdoor vs. Toronto’s suspect bullpen.
Over/Under
PASS.
“Lean” to the Over 8.5 (-135) because neither starter has looked sharp this year and the Blue Jays are 8-3 O/U in Berrios’ 11 starts.
But, there are a bunch of Under-friendly trends including Detroit’s 15-26 O/U record as an underdog and the Blue Jays-Tigers going Under in their last 4 meetings in Detroit.
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