In the first of a two-leg UEFA Champions League semifinal, Manchester City will welcome Real Madrid to Etihad Stadium Tuesday. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds and lines, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
Manchester City comes in with confidence as it hosts the La Liga-leading Real. City has won 2 straight games by at least 3 goals, over Brighton 3-0 and Watford 5-1.
City is backed by arguably the best midfield in the world, Kevin de Bruyne. Unlike PSG, who Real knocked out earlier in the tournament, City is going to want to possess. It leads the EPL in touches by more than 1,500.
Real will be tasked with slowing down the EPL-leading City. Madrid averages 2.09 goals per game in league play, and its strength comes defensively, allowing just .88. City averages 2.42 goals per match in league play and has allowed only 21 goals in 33 matches.
Real beat Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 in their 2 matches and then Chelsea 5-4. It’s had by far the most impressive journey to the final four. Madrid is led by F Karim Benzema, who has scored 25 goals in 29 matches.
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds, lines, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Manchester City -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Real Madrid +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Draw +360
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -155| U: +122)
[tipico]
Prediction
Manchester City 1, Real Madrid 0
Money line (ML)
PASS.
Manchester City is the better side, and in EPL action it is 13-2-2 at home. Real is 13-2-2 on the road in La Liga, a lesser competitive league.
With how Real has played other top teams, betting on City to win at -200 is not smart. A draw at +360 has value, but I’d rather look elsewhere to bet on this highly anticipated battle.
One other bet I like is BOTH TEAMS NOT TO SCORE at -105.
I love this because of the pace City plays with. They’ll kick it around, work it to the middle and attack with accuracy and poise.
However, it’s their possession that kills. Athletico Madrid didn’t score in 2 games and had just 1.1 expected goals through both. City hasn’t allowed a single goal through 4 knockout-stage games.
Also, Real had 9 shots on goal through 2 games against Chelsea, scoring 5 of them. That 5-to-9 ratio isn’t sustainable. It allowed 12 shots on goal through those 2 games and has allowed the second-fewest goals allowed in La Liga.
This should be a defensive-heavy battle.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 2.5 (+122).
Considering the above analysis, I also like the Under here. City is going to want to keep this game slow as its both the first leg and at home. Three of City’s 4 knockout-stage games have had under 1.5 goals scored.
While that’s a risky proposition, one can take under 1.5 at +320.
Real is 3-3 O/U the 2.5 in matches against Round of 16 opponents. Given how the more dominant side is going to want to play, expect the Under to be the better play.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=43996]