The Dallas Mavericks (22-18) head to the Big Apple Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game with the New York Knicks (20-21) at Madison Square Garden. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Bulls odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas has won six consecutive games (5-1 ATS) with the most recent being a 113-99 beatdown of the Chicago Bulls as 2-point home favorites Sunday.
Over the past two weeks, the Mavs have the second-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-16.2 points per 100 possessions and the second-best spread differential at a plus-10.4 ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
New York has won three of its past four games, including the latest, which was a 111-96 waxing of the San Antonio Spurs Monday as 7.5-point home favorites.
In the last 14 days, the Knicks are 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U with the 17th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at minus-1.2 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.
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Mavericks at Knicks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Knicks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks -2.5 (-108) | Knicks +2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Mavericks at Knicks key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
Knicks
- C Taj Gibson (wrist) questionable
- C Nerlens Noel (reconditioning) questionable
- PG Kemba Walker (knee) questionable
- PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out
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Mavericks at Knicks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Knicks 103, Mavericks 98
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Knicks (+110) because I like their spread and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.
However, I cannot get there with the Knicks outright because I’d like New York’s money line to be priced north of +150. It might get there before tip-off since money is pouring in on Dallas.
But, at the moment, PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the KNICKS +2.5 (-112) for a half-unit because this feels like a trap spot for the Mavericks -2.5 (-108), who are seemingly cheap given how well they’ve played recently and how inconsistent New York has been at home.
Furthermore, Dallas has been terrible in clutch situations, which is defined by a game that has a 5-point margin entering the final five minutes. In those situations, the Mavs are 7-11 SU with the worst net rating (minus-31.6).
Granted, the Knicks aren’t much better (11-11 SU) with the 22nd-ranked net rating at a minus-10.5.
That said, in this game priced as a coin-flip, I “LEAN” to the KNICKS +2.5 (-112) since the Mavs are terrible late in games.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 204.5 (-108) since Dallas plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA and New York plays at the slowest pace.
Also, both teams have a below-average offensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and an above-average defensive eFG%.
Plus both teams play more to the Under in non-conference games and in their location-based splits.
Lastly, there’s some reverse line movement headed south of the total. According to Pregame.com, nearly 85% of the action is on the Over, but the Mavericks-Knicks total has been lowered from the 206.5-point opener.
It should be a red flag whenever we see sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper. And for what it’s worth, the UNDER 204.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.
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