If there’s one team the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may want to avoid when the playoffs begin, it’s the New Orleans Saints.
That became abundantly clear Sunday night when they lost to New Orleans for the fourth time in as many regular-season games since they acquired Tom Brady. However, the loss only increases the chances of Tampa facing New Orleans in the playoffs.
The Saints entered Week 15 at 6-7, with just one win in their previous six games. Thought to be dead in the water, a loss to the Bucs wouldn’t have mathematically eliminated them from the playoffs but no one would’ve bet on it.
Instead, the Saints won and now they have new life. Their odds to reach the playoffs are now +350 on Tipico Sportsbook. If the season ended today, they would be the seventh and final playoff team in the NFC – with the Bucs one tiebreaker away from having to play them a third time this season.
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With four games remaining this week and another three weeks left in the regular season, the standings are far from final and sure to continue shuffling. That means there’s still time for a Saints-Bucs matchup to align, and that may be a worst-case scenario for Tampa.
Already without Antonio Brown, the Bucs lost starting wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the second quarter of Sunday’s game and running back Leonard Fournette in the third. However, to blame the loss solely on injuries would be dismissive of what New Orleans has been able to accomplish.
In their four meetings over the last two years – not including the Bucs’ divisional playoff win last year – Brady has eight interceptions. That’s more than a third of his interception total the last two years. The Saints have a +64 scoring differential in those games. Sunday night is the first time Brady has been shutout since 2006.
On #SNF, the @Saints handed Tom Brady his first shutout since Week 15, 2006 …
Back on Dec 10, 2006:
– Brady was 29 years, 129 days old
– No currently active defensive player had yet entered the NFL
– Drew Brees was playing his first season w/ the Saints— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 20, 2021
Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been able to neutralize the impact of Evans, who has just nine combined receptions against the Saints since 2020, including the playoff game. And he wasn’t even the team’s highest-rated corner Sunday night, according to PFF.com. That distinction belongs to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (who didn’t let an opportunity to taunt Brady pass him by). Overall, the entire Saints defense matches up well with the Bucs and what they want to do.
It’s not inconceivable that the Bucs beat the Saints if they have to play again; they won the playoff meeting last year after being swept. But even that game was one the Saints could have won. They held a lead in the third quarter and the game was tied entering the fourth. New Orleans couldn’t overcome four turnovers, including three Drew Brees interceptions, but they remain the team best equipped to knock off the reigning champs.
Entering Monday, there are three other teams that join the Saints with seven losses: the Minnesota Vikings, who play Monday night, and the Washington Football Team and Philadelphia Eagles, who play each other Tuesday. Of those teams competing for a Wild Card berth, the Saints have the easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon.com.
If the Bucs want to avoid them in the first round, the best thing they can do is win out and try to overtake the Green Bay Packers for the top seed in the conference. Otherwise, we could be in for one of the biggest playoff upsets of the year.