With stretchy pants on following eating too much turkey, we’re looking for prop bets that will make us thankful before the holiday bills hit us in the mouth. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 12, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 12 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-114)
It seemed earlier in the season, the Colts were getting too much respect as a team on point spreads and as individual players. It seems as if those setting the prop lines still don’t believe in Taylor, despite rushing for almost 800 yards in his last six games and topping 100 yards five times. It has become what the Colts do offensively. At home against the Buccaneers, unless Tampa Bay gets a three-score lead and forces Indy’s hand, Taylor is going to get the ball 20 times. He has at least one run of 33 or more yards in five of the last six games, and if history repeats itself, that will be all he needs to push this number Over.
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Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 257.5 passing yards (-114)
This is a big number for Roethlisberger and likely takes into account past performances when the Steelers dominated the Bengals. Those days are gone. Big Ben is showing the signs of age, and Najee Harris is the who the Steelers’ offense runs through now. In five games when he has more than 20 carries, the Steelers are 4-0-1. In five games he has less than 20, Pittsburgh is 1-4. The familiarity between these teams will keep the play calling close to the vest, and the track record is too obvious. If the Steelers want to win, it needs to be Harris, not Roethlisberger that gets the job done.
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp OVER 96.5 receiving yards (-114)
My bankroll has gotten fat and happy betting on Kupp. He has just one game with less than 92 receiving yards. His reception Over/Under is such that to hit the Over, he will need to catch eight passes – about as high a number as possible. His yardage numbers have been high but not absurdly high. The Packers like to play a lot of man-press coverage, and that lends itself to big plays. Kupp has topped 115 yards in four of his last five games (92 yards in the other), and until somebody can shut him and Matthew Stafford down, the hits will keep on coming.
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San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 250.5 passing yards (-114)
I’m no fan of Jimmy G. I’m not shy about that. He’s a placeholder quarterback that does enough to get the job done, but depends on the run far too often in the system that he runs. All he is asked to do is find Deebo Samuel and George Kittle often enough to keep defenses on their heels while the 49ers run the ball. In his last six games, Garoppolo has had 17 or fewer completions in five of them. It’s by design in this offense. For Garoppolo to hit the Over on this – given his average of about 15 completions a game – he will need to average almost 17 yards per completion to hit that number.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-118)
Jackson is always a difficult bet when it comes to rushing yards because of what he is capable of. He has rushed for less than this number in five of his last seven games. That being said, this is a divisional game against the Browns, who are known for bringing blitz pressure that surrounds the QB from different angles. Jackson is clearly not your average quarterback. In five career starts against the Browns, he has topped this number four times, including more than 100 rushing yards in two of the last three. In the most competitive top-to-bottom division in the league, Jackson will do what needs to be done. That may require him to run 10 times. If he does that, there’s no way he hits the under – and he averages 12 rushes a game against the Browns.
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