The Buffalo Bills (5-2) travel to TIAA Bank Field for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff with the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) Sunday. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Jaguars odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Buffalo handled business with a 26-11 victory vs. the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. The game was a lot closer than the final score indicates and the Bills pushed as 15-point home favorites. Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
Jacksonville was embarrassed in a 31-7 blowout at the Seattle Seahawks who had backup QB Geno Smith under center. The Jaguars’ only victory this year was against the Dolphins in London. Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS and 2-5 O/U.
Bills at Jaguars odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bills -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100) | Jaguars +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills -14.5 (-108) | Jaguars +14.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Bills at Jaguars key injuries
Bills
- TE Dawson Knox (hand) out
- LG Jon Feliciano (calf) out
- RT Spencer Brown (back) out
- WR Cole Beasley (ribs) questionable
- SS Jordan Poyer (shoulder) questionable
Jaguars
- RB James Robinson (heel) questionable
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Bills at Jaguars odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 27, Jaguars 21
Money line
PASS because I’d never lay -1100 with any NFL regular-season favorite regardless of lopsided the matchup may be. There’s no doubt Buffalo should win this game and I don’t have a problem with the pricing.
And even though I “lean” to Jacksonville plus the points in this spot, I cannot make a good enough case on the underdog to “sprinkle” on the Jaguars (+650).
However, crazier upsets have happened. For instance, Buffalo upset the Minnesota Vikings in 2018 as 16.5-point road underdogs in Josh Allen‘s rookie season. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence and head coach Urban Meyer could certainly pull off a miracle here.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the JAGUARS +14.5 (-112) because “fading the market” is the strongest handicapping angle in this game. All of Buffalo’s perceived edges (quarterback, coaching and defense) are baked into line.
In fact, the Bills opened as 10-point favorites before the market steamed it up to the current number. According to Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the handle is on Buffalo’s spread and we know 90% of the public doesn’t win money in sports betting.
Furthermore, Football Outsiders grades the Bills as the most efficient team in the NFL and the Jaguars rank 30th in their total DVOA metric. But, Football Outsiders also ranks Buffalo dead-last in performance variance.
Meaning the Bills have lapses in execution. Maybe Jacksonville catches Buffalo snoozing in what’s a sandwich-spot between two division games for the Bills.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 48.5 (-112) because there’s a smidge of “reverse line movement” towards the Under.
For instance, more than 60% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total of the Bills-Jaguars has been lowered from the 49.5-point opener.
Also, Buffalo has several injuries on its offense and if the Bills are going to lay a dud anywhere it’ll be on offense. Allen could be without his slot wide receiver (Beasley), an emerging tight end (Knox) and two offensive linemen.
That said, my prediction aligns with the oddsmakers’ projected total so there’s no value in me betting the Under 48.5 (-108).
Week 9 best bets
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