The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros continue the World Series Tuesday with Game 6 at Minute Maid Park. With Atlanta leading the best-of-seven series 3-2, first pitch is scheduled for 8:09 p.m. ET (on FOX). Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Behind a shuffled lineup, the Astros avoided elimination with a 9-5 victory in Atlanta Sunday. The new batting order paid off as Houston rallied from deficits of 4-0 (Atlanta CF Adam Duvall hit a first-inning grand slam) and 5-4 (after three innings).
Braves LHP Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA regular season) will make his second start of the World Series and his fifth start of this postseason.
- Career vs. Astros: 0-1, 10.80 ERA (5 IP, 6 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 road loss in Wednesday’s Game 2, which was his last outing
- 2021 postseason: 1-2, 5.40 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 26 H, 3 BB, 23 K in four starts
- Career postseason: 1-3, 4.53 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 53 K in 16 games (eight starts)
Houston will counter with rookie RHP Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.48 ERA regular season) on short rest in what will likely be a “bullpen game.” Like Fried, he’ll also be making his second World Series start and his fifth of this postseason.
- Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 2.45 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 2-0 road loss in Friday’s Game 3, which was his last outing
- 2021 postseason: 1-2, 7.62 ERA (13 IP, 11 ER), 11 H, 11 BB, 18 K in four starts
- Career postseason: 1-2, 6.60 ERA (15 IP, 11 ER), 11 H, 13 BB, 19 K in five starts
Braves at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Braves 4, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
ATLANTA (+105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
There are two ways this goes down. Atlanta wins a low-scoring game or Houston wins a high-scoring game.
Sure, Fried is coming off two terrible outings. Houston scored 6 runs in 5 innings against him in Game 2, and he was touched for 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings of an NLCS Game 5 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Oct. 21.
Fried is too good of a pitcher to suffer a third bad start in a row. From Aug. 3 to the end of the regular season, Fried went 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA (74 IP, 12 ER) in 11 starts. He tossed 2 complete games and held opponents to a .183 batting average as the Braves went 10-1 during that span.
In his first two postseason starts, he allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings with 14 strikeouts, going 1-0 with 1.50 ERA while the Braves won both games.
Fried grew up in Los Angeles and is a big fan of fellow southpaw Sandy Koufax, the Hall of Famer who is one of the best left-handers of all time.
Look for Fried to have his Koufax World Series moment Tuesday night.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS due to the prices being a bit steep in Atlanta +1.5 (-190) and the alternate line of Houston +1.5 (-210).
The Astros do have a 3-2 ATS advantage through the first five games.
If you disagree with my Fried philosophy and believe Houston will win to force a Game 7, there’s decent value in Astros -1.5 (+155).
ATS records:
- Regular season: Braves 78-83 | Astros 77-85
- Postseason: Braves 10-5 | Astros 9-6
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100) to WIN 0.5 UNITS.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the series, including 1-0-1 in the first two games at Minute Maid Park.
While the Astros opened the postseason on an 8-1 Over run, pitching is what wins championships when all is said and done.
O/U records:
- Regular season: Braves 74-78-9 | Astros 86-69-7
- Postseason: Braves 6-8-1 | Astros 9-5-1
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| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 75-52 | 31-18 | +20.345 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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