The Colorado Rockies (68-78) and Washington Nationals (60-86) open a three-game set Friday at Nationals Park. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rockies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Rockies RHP German Marquez (12-10, 3.93 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 167 IP.
- Has struggled on the road this season with a 4.93 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 73 innings spanning 13 starts.
- Has rebounded in September with 2 earned runs through 11 innings across two starts after a rough August that saw him record a 6.75 ERA over five outings.
Nationals RHP Josiah Gray (0-2, 6.00 ERA) makes his 10th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 48 IP with the Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Allowed 5 or more earned runs in three consecutive outings against the Philadephia Phillies, New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Faced Colorado July 25 as a member of the Dodgers with a stat line of 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
Rockies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Nationals -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies -1.5 (+135) | Nationals +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Rockies 6, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
Friday’s game brings plenty of mixed signals in analysis but we’re going to lean into the starting pitching matchup and recent results from both teams.
Marquez has seemingly righted the ship after a rough August and faces off against a prospect in Gray that has yet to find his footing in the majors.
Gray has undoubtedly been hurt by an astonishingly high 23.9% HR/FB rate but has also benefited from a below-average .250 BABIP and an above-average 80.5% left on base rate.
The Rockies have gone 8-4 over their last dozen road games with series wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
The Nats are 4-6 over their last 10 games, 6-14 over their last 20 and 10-20 over their last 30. Washington is not playing good baseball.
I have some persisting concerns about Colorado’s ability to get it done on the road, and its ability to hit right-handed pitching has continued to be a problem, but I’m going to lay a partial-unit bet on the ROCKIES (-117).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This is a PASS with a small “lean” on Colorado -1.5 (+133) for the aforementioned reasons.
However, four of Colorado’s last five victories were by a single run, Washington has continued to hit the ball very well through the second half of the season despite its record and although neither bullpen grades out particularly well in recent weeks the Rockies do grade worse than the Nationals.
Over/Under (O/U)
Perhaps an inward breeze saves Gray from his home run woes Friday, but I can’t get behind an Under against a pitcher that allows so many baserunners. There are also enough concerns with both bullpens that we could see some late action.
I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-125).
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