The Cincinnati Reds (62-54) visit Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (60-55). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincy snapped a three-game losing streak by clubbing the Atlanta Braves 12-3 in the series finale of their set and is 6-4 in its last 10 games.
Philly has stormed to the front of the NL East thanks to an 8-2 record in their last 10 games and a 13-7 mark across the last 20. However, they did just lose two of three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1.
RHP Tyler Mahle is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Mahle is 9-3 with a 3.78 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 10 K Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 2021 road splits: 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB in 12 starts.
RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 24th start for the Phillies. Wheeler is 10-6 with a 2.42 ERA (156 IP, 42 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9.
- Last outing: Win, 3-0, CG with 9 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 11 K Sunday against the New York Mets.
- 2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 2.02 ERA (98 IP, 22 ER), 0.83 WHIP and a 7.7 K/BB in 14 starts.
Reds at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Reds 5, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the REDS (+140) because I’m taking Cincy’s run line, Mahle has been terrific on the road this year, Cincy’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Reds relievers have pitched much better than Philly’s since the All-Star Game.
For instance, the Reds rank sixth wRC+, seventh in hard-hit rate and first in wOBA vs. righties. While the Phillies are 21st in wRC+, 16th in wOBA and 23rd in hard-hit rate.
Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been mediocre to above average in the second half of the season (10th in xFIP and 13th in SIERA) while Philly’s bullpen has been awful (27th in both SIERA and K-BB% and 25th in xFIP).
Wheeler is coming off perhaps his best pitching performance of the year with a 108-pitch CG shutout so I’m banking on slight regression or at least a lesser workload.
Furthermore, according to pregame.com, there’s a “line freeze” in the betting market as nearly 70% of the cash and action is on the Phillies. However, the line hasn’t adjusted much from Tipico’s opener and most sportsbooks have stuck near their original price despite the one-sided action.
I’m okay putting a LIGHT WAGER on the REDS (+140) and fade the market because Wheeler is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young on most sportsbooks who’s coming off an amazing start so all the public action adds up.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the REDS +1.5 (-150) heavier than or instead of their money line because of Cincy’s bullpen, pitching and hitting edges described above. On top of that, Philly is 14-23 ATS as a home favorite and Cincy is 28-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-110) because we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market as, per pregame.com, nearly 90% of the cash wagered on the total is with the Under and more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.
Typically in sports betting it’s sharper to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the masses.
Lastly, the Phillies are 8-14 O/U when Wheeler gets the start and the Reds are 4-6-2 O/U in Mahle’s 12 road starts.
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