The Philadelphia Phillies (34-37) and New York Mets (38-31) play a doubleheader Friday at Citi Field to begin a four-game weekend set. First pitch of the first game is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets Game 1 odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (5-4, 4.22 ERA) enters his 16th start of the season with his worst ERA since his 2016 sophomore season. He sports a 1.22 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 through 85 1/3 IP.
- Nola’s hard-hit percentage is right on his career average, but he’s allowing a vastly inflated rate of fly balls and a higher BABIP
- Faced the Mets in back-to-back starts in April and allowed 4 ER on 13 H and 3 BB with 12 K over 9 total innings
Mets RHP Taijuan Walker (6-3, 2.42 ERA) makes the 14th start of his breakout ninth MLB season. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 74 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed just 5 home runs through 13 starts despite an ugly 42.4% hard-hit rate; his 3.00 FIP and suppressed .263 BABIP suggest some regression
- Met the Phillies twice this season; he took a no-decision both times but New York won each game
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Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-225) | Mets -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under: 6 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Phillies 3, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
Back the PHILLIES (+105) as short road underdogs in the first of the two 7-inning games. Both teams had the day off Thursday so the bullpens should be appropriately rested, and both teams are sending a quality starter to the mound.
Nola’s 3.64 xFIP for the season offers hope of improvement on his 4.22 ERA, while Walker’s numbers go (slightly) the other way. Nola also has plenty of experience against his NL East rivals, while the Phillies offense could get the jump on the previously unfamiliar Walker in his third start against them this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Both starters should handle the bulk of the innings in this abbreviated game and neither team has been any better than league average against right-handed pitching by all meaningful measures. Expect a low-scoring and closely-contested battle in the 10th head-to-head meeting of the season.
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Bet UNDER 6 (-120). Not only is the starting pitching matchup strong but both bullpens are top five in MLB by xFIP over the last 14 days.
As noted above, they’re also rested after Thursday’s off day.
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