The 2021 NFL free-agency period, which officially begins at 4 p.m. ET on March 17, promises to be like few others in the league’s history. Due to projected revenue shortfalls in the age of COVID, the league has anticipated that the 2021 salary cap will be somewhere between $180 million and $185 million per team.
That’s down from $198.2 million in the 2020 league year, which obviously puts several teams in a major pinch. Right now, per OverTheCap.com, there are 12 NFL teams over a projected salary cap of $180.5 million, and teams like the Saints ($58,718,146 over before franchising safety Marcus Williams), Rams ($35,136,331 over), Eagles ($34,146,468 over, which is mostly the Carson Wentz aftermath), Chiefs ($22,984,019 over), and Steelers (from $26,131,664 over to $3,617,086 over after a lot of pruning), will have to engage in some highly creative accounting just to get into compliance — forget about making any big splashes.
On the other hand, we have teams like the Jaguars ($71,821,714 under the cap), Jets ($67,341,082 under), Patriots ($62,211,837 under before the Trent Brown trade), Colts ($44,681,614 under), and Bengals ($40,979,130 under). The radical disparity between the haves and the have-nots when it comes to the capacity to spend in free agency could lead to an unusually constricted market, especially for those players who are more rank-and-file than sheer superstar. Not that those players won’t have offers; but those offers might not be what they may have been in previous years. It’s not the fault of the players; it’s simply how the market lands in this particular time. This could result in a lot of free agents taking one-year contracts and shining it on until new television deals and the hope of a more “normal” world make things more equitable in the 2022 league year.
After the Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to a four-year, $160 million contract, the Cardinals signed J.J. Watt to a two-year, $28 million free-agent deal, the Buccaneers signed Lavonte David to a two-year, $25 million contract, and franchise tags were handed out to eight different players (Broncos safety Justin Simmons, Jets safety Marcus Maye, Saints safety Marcus Williams, Bears receiver Allen Robinson, Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin, Panthers offensive tackle Taylor Moton, Jaguars offensive tackle Cam Robinson, and Washington guard Brandon Scherff), the free agency picture got shaken up, especially at or near the top of everybody’s lists.
So, let’s talk about remaining free-agent value, at least how we see it at Touchdown Wire. Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield have compiled their list of the top 51 players who should be available as unrestricted free agents, after tags have been applied and new deals were signed. Mark assembled the offensive players, Doug put together the defensive list, and they then compiled the top remaining free agents in the upcoming 2021 league year, regardless of position.