It was a record-setting NFL season on the scoreboard as games averaged an all-time high 49.6 combined points with 5.76 touchdowns per contest — a high-water mark in the Super Bowl era. Will Sunday’s 2021 Super Bowl follow suit? Super Bowl 55 is lined as such with the third-highest Over/Under (56.5 points) in Big Game history.
Still, a hefty O/U far from guarantees a high-scoring shootout as the Over has cashed only four times in the previous 12 Super Bowls with 50-point-plus totals, including only once in the seven most recent championship games.
Those trends in mind, here are some Super Bowl LV total TD prop bet picks and predictions.
2021 Super Bowl total touchdown prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
7.5 total touchdowns: Over: +170, Under: -225
Computing the implied probabilities here, there’s a 37.04% chance of the Chiefs and Buccaneers scoring 8 or more combined TDs and a 69.23% of 7 or fewer 6-point scores.
Breaking down the TD totals in each team’s games this season — 19 for the Bucs and 18 for the Chiefs — and also the 30 most recent Super Bowls, we find 27 of the 37 (73%) Tampa Bay and Kansas City contests in 2020-21 featured 7 or fewer combined TDs and 24 of the previous 30 (80%) Super Bowls did as well, including 10 of the 12 (83.3%) with totals above 50 points.
Those 2020 games include, of course, the Chiefs’ 27-24 Week 12 win in Tampa which featured six combined TDs (three apiece).
It all points us toward the under 7.5 here as we recommend laying the -225.
Also see:
Each team to score 2 or more touchdowns: Yes: -300, No: +225
Yes has an implied probability of 75% while No is 30.77%.
That’s a hefty slant toward Yes, but our numbers say there’s still some value there.
In the 37 games this season for our 2021 Super Bowl combatants, each team found its way into the end zone at least twice in 28 contests (75.7%). In the 30 most recent Super Bowls, 24 (80%) have seen at least two TDs apiece from the two teams, including 10 of the 12 (83.3%) high-total contests.
That makes Yes a strong play, even at -300.
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Exact total touchdowns: 5 (+425), 6 (+400), 7 (+425); 8 (+600)
These are the four likeliest totals Sunday, with 6 touchdowns given the highest implied probability (20%) and 8 TDs (14.29%) the least. Five and 7 are even with a 19.05% implied probability.
In our review of the 2020 games and last 30 Super Bowl totals, though, 7 TDs emerged as the most frequent sum in both categories at 21.6 and 20%, respectively.
So, 7 touchdowns being scored Sunday is the recommended play if you’re looking for a nice plus-money payout (+425) from a total touchdown prop.
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Also see:
-
Hill says Mahomes is ‘throwing crazy dots’ in practice (Chiefs Wire)
- Bucs already targeting extension for Brady? (Bucs Wire)
Follow Ken Pomponio on Twitter @kenpomp. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
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