The Pittsburgh Pirates (7-19) bring the league’s worst record into Thursday’s doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals (11-9). First pitch of Game 1 is set for 3:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. We analyze the Pirates-Cardinals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Pirates at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Chad Kuhl vs. LHP Kwang Hyun Kim
Kuhl missed all of the 2019 season following Tommy John surgery and is continuing to ramp up, getting to a season-high 84 pitches in his last start. He has made five appearances (three starts) to date, and has a 2.84 ERA and 9.0 K/9 in 19 innings.
- His fastball velocity isn’t all the way back yet, and his low ERA has been aided by a .182 BABIP. He has significantly increased his slider usage, which has led to more swings and misses than in years’ past.
- Kuhl has been a better pitcher on the road in his career than he has at home. As a visiting pitcher, he boasts a 3.86 ERA and 2.6 K:BB, compared to 4.76 and 1.9, respectively, in home games.
Kim was impressive in his most recent outing, tossing six scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing just three hits and striking out three batters. In total, he has surrendered just two earned runs in 10 2/3 innings this season for a 1.69 ERA.
- The low ERA hasn’t been supported by his peripherals, as Kim has struck out only four batters on the young season, while walking three.
- Kim recorded a 2.51 ERA across 190 1/3 innings in Korea in 2019, while his 180 strikeouts ranked second in the KBO.
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Pirates at Cardinals: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Pirates
- 3B Colin Moran (concussion) questionable
- SS Kevin Newman (abdominal) questionable
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
Cardinals
- C Matt Wieters (toe) out
- RP Ryan Helsley (COVID-19) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Pirates at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Pirates 4, Cardinals 2
Moneyline (ML)
- Pirates +140
- Cardinals -154
The pitching matchup is pretty even, and there’s not a huge gap in offensive production, either. The Pirates rank 25th in runs per game at 4.04, while the Cardinals are 22nd (4.35).
The Pittsburgh bats have taken a step forward against lefties in 2020, as they rank eighth in wRC+. This line is too big, so take the underdog PIRATES (+140).
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Pirates would return a profit of $14.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Pirates +1.5 (-176)
- Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
This is likely to be a pretty close game throughout, but -176 is a little too steep of a price to pay for a team that is 2-10 on the road this season. Look elsewhere for value, and PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 6.5 (-110)
- Under 6.5 (-110)
Since this is part of a doubleheader, it will only be a seven-inning game, which helps explain why the total is so low.
Kuhl is better than he’s given credit for, and the Pirate offense is never a good bet to explode. Also, several starters are likely to sit in one half of today’s action, meaning the lineups could be at less than full strength. This game will probably end up very close to the total, but we’ll lean slightly to the UNDER 6.5 (-110).
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