The Chicago Cubs (2-1) visit the Cincinnati Reds (1-2) for the first game of a four-game series at Great American Ball Park Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET. We analyze the Cubs-Reds MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Sunday: The Cubs roughed up the Milwaukee Brewers 9-1 to take 2 of 3 at home – Chicago won the opener. The Reds lost 3-2 at home to the Detroit Tigers, surprisingly dropping 2 of 3. Cincy, which won the opener, was heavily favorited in all three games.
Cubs at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Jon Lester vs. LHP Wade Miley
Lester in 2019: 13-10, 4.46 ERA in 31 starts – yielded an NL-high 205 hits in 171 2/3 innings
- 2019 vs. Reds: 0-1, 4.02 (7 ER, 15 2/3 IP) in 3 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 7-2, 3.90 ERA (49 ER, 113 IP) in 19 starts
Miley in 2019 (Houston Astros): 14-6, 3.98 ERA in 33 starts
- 2019 vs. Cubs: 0-1, 2.57 ERA (2 ER, 7 IP) in 1 start
- Career vs. Cubs: 6-3, 3.92 ERA (28 ER, 64 1/3 IP) in 10 starts
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Cubs at Reds: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Reds
- C Tucker Barnhart (paternity leave) doubtful
- 1B/DH Matt Davidson (COVID-19) out
- 2B Mike Moustakas (illness) out
- OF Nick Senzel (illness) questionable
Cubs at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 5, Reds 4
Moneyline (ML)
The CUBS (-121) are the STRONGEST PLAY. Not only are the Reds (+110) at a disadvantage with cleanup hitter Moustakas on the injured list, but the bullpen has struggled, costing the Reds two wins vs. the Tigers. Cincy relievers surrendered 4 home runs over the weekend, including two by Michael Lorenzen (1 2/3 IP) and one by closer Raisel Iglesias (1 IP).
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on Chicago will return a profit of $8.26 – or every $1.21 bet on Chicago will profit $1 if it wins.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I’m rolling the dice and backing the REDS (+1.5, -143). Despite losing his one start against the Cubs (-1.5, +120) last year, Miley wasn’t awful. He struck out 9 and allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings of an Astros’ 2-1 loss in late May.
I know this seems to contradict my ML PLAY above, but I am predicting a 5-4 victory for the Cubs, which would make both plays winners. If you don’t want to risk betting on both a Cubs W and the Reds staying within one run, it’s understandable – just stick with the STRONGEST PLAY of CUBS’ ML.
Over/Under (O/U)
AVOID. The O/U is 10 with -110 odds on both sides. I’d lean toward the Under, but I’m taking a PASS.
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| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 4-2 |
| 2020 overall record | 38-26-1 |
| Strongest plays | 22-11 |
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