NBA execs reportedly believe next season could start in January

Delaying the 2020-21 start could give the NBA a better shot at having fans in arenas, along with a longer time window to finish this season.

Whether the NBA is able to conclude its suspended 2019-20 season or not, it seems to be becoming increasingly clear that the 2020-21 campaign will not start on the league’s usual timetable of October.

Citing league sources, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer reported Friday that there is “an increasing belief among front offices that the [2020-21] season will need to start in January because of the financial implications of this suspension.” The 2019-20 season has been on hold since March 12 due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, and there is still no clear timetable for its potential resumption.

If the 2019-20 season is able to resume, it would almost certainly be at a neutral “bubble” site, which should reduce the risk of COVID-19 spreading throuhout the league. But that scenario means that NBA teams aren’t able to capture their usual revenue from hosting home games.

According to O’Connor, teams want to increase the chances of returning to some form of normalcy for the 2020-21 season. He writes:

About 25 percent of league revenue comes from ticket sales and related revenues like luxury boxes, suites, parking, and concession stands, according to multiple sources; that number is far higher for some big-market teams, which also impacts smaller markets because of revenue sharing.

“It’s pretty brutal to the model [if fans can’t be in arenas],” said one Western Conference front office executive, adding that it would not only impact league spending but hurt team employees, who are paid far less than players. Multiple executives on the basketball operations and business operations side of team front offices said that many jobs will be lost, and the impact will be felt for years if fans aren’t in the seats.

In theory, delaying the start of 2020-21 until January should improve the odds of a COVID-19 vaccine or superior drug treatment being in place, which, in turn, could enable fans to return to NBA arenas.

“The longer they wait to start next season, the greater the odds that a larger share of the season will have fans in seats,” O’Connor writes.

The delayed timetable for next season should also give the league a better chance to complete the current 2019-20 year. While initial reports suggested that the NBA wanted to complete this season by Labor Day to avoid a potential conflict with football games in the fall, O’Connor reports that the league is now open to further extending its calendar.

Finishing the season before Labor Day is preferred since the NBA doesn’t want to dip too far into the NFL season, but it’s not a necessity. Completing the season is the priority. The time from the end of the NBA Finals until the start of the following regular season is usually around four months, but league insiders say this coming offseason could be completed in as little as one month, if necessary. After all, it took only weeks for the league to get ready after the 2011 lockout.

For now, NBA teams are taking incremental steps toward resuming operations. As of Friday, teams are allowed to begin reopening team facilities to players for individual workouts under strict physical distancing protocols. The Houston Rockets aren’t expected to open their doors until Monday, May 18, in accordance with state guidelines for gyms.

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From there, the hope seems to be that the league will progress to a more traditional “training camp” model in early to mid June, aimed at getting players back in shape for a potential resumption of play.

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That timetable could still be pushed back, of course, if conditions around the United States pertaining to COVID-19 warrant a further delay. But even if that’s the case, the continued presence of the virus ⁠— and its impact on fan attendance and the NBA’s usual business model ⁠— should give the league more flexibility to finish this season, as well.

If 2020-21 isn’t starting until January 2021 no matter what, that provides the NBA with a longer time window to make its 2019-20 decisions.