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Yes, a preseason college football ranking. In February. However, it all makes sense, considering SP+ — the metrics pioneered by Bill Connelly — are advanced analytics.
How Connelly, the ESPN and former SB Nation analytics guru, came up with a predictor for 2020 is through returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. Considering that Connelly has Michigan — again, using an analytical stance — as 125th in returning production (out of 130), the Wolverines aren’t exactly heading into 2020 as a top team, is it?
Turns out, Michigan isn’t in a terrible spot in Connelly’s formula, though not particularly a fantastic one, either. Michigan finished the 2019 season ranked at No. 15, and in his 2020 preseason predictor for SP+, the maize and blue come in ranked at No. 16.
His rankings have the Wolverines at 14th on defense and 31st on offense — with the latter being quite dependent on a cadre of new starting offensive linemen and a new starting quarterback.
As far as teams Michigan plays in 2020, there are some surprises in the SP+ rankings. Despite finishing ahead of Michigan in the rankings in 2019, Minnesota is ranked behind the Wolverines at No. 20, thanks to the loss of key defensive personnel. Ohio State didn’t end up finishing with the top spot as Connelly had expected, instead coming in at No. 2 behind Alabama. As of current Michigan plays three teams predicted to be in Connelly’s top ten.
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Here’s where the maize and blue’s opponents rank by the schedule, including where they come in on offense an defensive ranking:
Week 1: Washington (away) – 24 (62 offense, 10 defense)
Week 2: Ball State – 84 (68 offense, 89 defense)
Week 3: Arkansas State – 86 (35 offense, 112 defense)
Week 4: Wisconsin – 9 (17 offense, 4 defense)
Week 5: Penn State – 5 (11 offense, 11 defense)
Week 6: Michigan State (away) – 45 (106 offense, 21 defense)
Week 7: Minnesota (away) – 20 (6 offense, 58 defense)
Week 8: Purdue – 45 (29 offense, 70 defense)
Week 10: Maryland – 66 (59 offense, 78 defense)
Week 11: Rutgers (away) – 102 (113 offense, 68 defense)
Week 12: Indiana – 27 (22 offense, 39 defense)
Week 13: Ohio State (away) – 2 (3 offense, 5 defense)
And if you were wondering after looking at the offensive and defensive rankings, Alabama is anticipated to have the top-ranked offense with Georgia having the top-ranked defense.