Saturday’s game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Michigan State Spartans will be fascinating for many reasons, chiefly the absences of Brad Davison and Kobe King. Wisconsin will have a different rotation with extended minutes being provided by players who haven’t gotten a lot of playing time this season. That is enough of a plot point for Saturday, but if anyone needed more insights into this game, one of the other intriguing components is the notion of “scoring variance.”
In the January 17 meeting between these two teams — won by Michigan State, 67-55 — Aleem Ford and Tyler Wahl didn’t score a point. One can bet they will have to score a reasonable amount (seven-eight-nine points) for the Badgers to have any chance against the Spartans. Micah Potter scored just four points. Brevin Pritzl scored only two. If the Badgers get dramatic increases (and thereby, variance levels) from these players, compared to the Jan. 17 game, they could pull an upset.
This sounds hopeful, right? It should. However, Michigan State also has something to be confident about on the matter of scoring variance. Star guard Cassius Winston scored just six points on 3-of-12 shooting. Winston will very probably remember that performance and become determined to write a very different story in the Kohl Center. If Winston thrives — and remember, Brad Davison won’t be on the floor to guard him — it becomes very hard to see a Wisconsin victory…
… unless Micah Potter goes for 25.
Scoring variance is something to look for on Saturday, and not just from one team, but both.