Week 12 film notes: It rains, then pours as Packers offense struggles vs. 49ers

Breaking the tape from the Packers’ disappointing loss to the 49ers on Sunday night.

For the second time in three games, the Green Bay Packers played a “burn the tape” game. Against a team likely to compete for a birth into the Super Bowl, the Packers looked like a beaten dog. Under the lights of Levi’s Stadium, they cowered.

But the NFL is a week-to-week league. A few months ago, Patrick Mahomes was a generational quarterback. As of Monday night, Lamar Jackson has become, somehow, more generational in the public psyche. These things ebb and flow.

More importantly, the Packers will be forced to confront some of the fatal flaws that have been papered over with victories. Losses, especially bad ones, are like stepping onto the scale, pre-bowel movement, on the day after Thanksgiving. They’ll make you acknowledge your mistakes and poor decisions.

So what do they need to do to improve? Many things, but they can start by developing a better “get back on track” plan. When the offense has gone dormant this season, it often coincides with an identity switch. Low tempo. Exclusively shotgun. Inside zone run. It’s a lot of what got Mike McCarthy fired, in other words. The Packers need to have better built-in counterpunches.

Though the transitive property isn’t entirely valid, the Niners did struggle in both matchups against the Cardinals this season; while the Cardinals have some up-start talent at quarterback, they’re not on the Packers’ level from a talent standpoint. The Packers may not be as good as the 49ers this year, but the margin probably also isn’t what the score indicated two days ago.

The Packers will get two back-to-back winnable games where they’ll be able to right the ship. The Packers need to be playing their best football in December. Come January, all anyone needs is a chance.

Film notes:

  • The Packers’ middle-of-the-field zone defense is, and has been, an abomination this season. On Sunday night, they had few answers for receivers streaking across the field. As the only middle linebacker on the field for all three downs, Blake Martinez is often the culprit. He showed little feel for his zone, and defenders would easily find windows behind him. Matt LaFleur noted Monday that the Packers executed poorly on the Deebo Samuel touchdown, stating poor weakside coverage from the “hook/curl defender,” who from the film looks like Martinez.
  • Regarding the flat performance by the Packers’ passing offense, there isn’t one easy answer. Coverage was tight for most of the night. But Rodgers missed throws, too. He moved off his first read too slowly on the deep sideline throw to Davante Adams and had Marcedes Lewis streaking open in the middle. He hesitated on a play-action rollout until the last minute, so Allen Lazard had little green space to work with along the sideline. He also could have given Marquez Valdes-Scantling a better shot in the back of the end zone.
  • As a pure thrower, Rodgers is one of the best to ever do it, but he lacks the touch that someone like Russell Wilson possesses in spades. For example, on the aforementioned play-action rollout miss to Lazard, a softer, higher-arcing throw gives the receiver a better chance to adjust; Rodgers could also release the ball sooner, as he prefers firing off low-trajectory missiles in most cases (usually for good reason).
  • Predominately a Cover-3 team, the 49ers played a lot more Cover 1 (man) than the Packers had anticipated Sunday. The Packers struggled. Most routes were spread-em-out, one-on-one isolation routes. They didn’t adjust quickly enough to middle crossers or other man-beaters.
  • The play-action game has also been somewhat stale in the sense that the team relies too much on one one or two downfield “shot” plays.
  • The Packers’ struggles with the Niners’ pass rush perhaps could have been mitigated with greater integration of jet and orbit motion. The Packers found some success on the goal line with Davante Adams’ touchdown “catch” as well as Allen Lazard’s reverse. There were also jet motions that simply helped to freeze the 49ers’ pass rush for a split second. Either way, the Packers have to be more adaptive in-game when their original game plan isn’t working.
  • In a game as lopsided as this one, it’s hard to completely question the approach on defense. If the Packers play some form of complementary football, the issues probably don’t appear nearly as catastrophic. Nonetheless, the Packers’ issues on the back end appear one part technique and one part scheme discipline. Kevin King has been picked on all year, and he needs to do a much better job playing to his leverage. The team as a whole also just doesn’t communicate well. There are coverage breakdowns seemingly every week. It might be time to let the athletes play, utilize more man coverage, and risk the big play over the top because the chunk plays are happening anyway.
  • It goes without saying, but the offensive line had their lunch handed to them. Corey Linsley played, by far, his worst game of the year. The interior pressure has been a killer for Rodgers in particular.
  • The Packers need better answers to pressure. The Cardinals achieved this by moving the pocket and getting the Niners’ edge defenders off their line.

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