4. Green Bay at New Orleans
Point Total: 49.5
ATS Pick: Under
It’s the first of two picks for this game around two theories. 1) The Jacksonville setting will make this odd – more about that in the next pick – and 2) both defenses are just going to be terrific.
As amazing as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were on offense last season, it was the defense that helped make the run to the No. 1 seed by holding four of the last five teams on the regular season slate to fewer than 17 points each.
New Orleans was fifth in the NFL in points allowed, holding eight of the last ten teams it played before Tampa Bay in the playoffs to 20 or fewer.
Both offensive lines will be good – especially New Orleans’ – but both will bring the pass rush, and …
Whatever. People are going to bet up the over on Sunday morning because it’s more fun – wait until late and this goes up to around 51 – and they remember the 37-30 shootout and Green Bay win early last year.
Also, there’s the Jameis factor.
Do the Saints have a slew of high-end receivers? Not really. Is Sean Payton going to fully trust Winston to turn it loose against a secondary that forced a whole lot of takeaways over the second half of last season? Probably not.
Hope for a shootout, prepare for a game in the mid-20s on each side.