2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2021 fantasy football drafts.

It’s rare that an otherwise consistently selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some recognizable names just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.

“Bust” is a loaded term that isn’t entirely fair, nor is it an accurate reflection of a player’s risk. Furthermore, it’s tough to find a consensus definition. Can an injury create a bust? Is it only a bust situation if the player goes up in flames without an injury? Both? Are busts only early-round selections? You get the point. Regardless of how one defines it, the term is far from perfect.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” in this space. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, and those dramatic differences will be noted below.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

1) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals  | ADP: 3:05 | Bust factor

In Mixon’s four pro seasons, he has finished a full slate just once. The Bengals present an intriguing situation from a volume perspective, but the lack of durability makes it more or less a wash. Even if he stays healthy, Mixon has a suspect offensive line and an offense system intent on throwing the ball to a trio of formidable wideouts. Mixon has yet to reach double-digit touchdowns in a season, and his yardage cap is less than 1,170 yards on the ground. Don’t get hung up on his name value.

2) QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans | ADP: 7:09 | Bust factor/overvalued

The receiving corps is relying on a breakthrough from tight end Anthony Firkser, which is reasonable, and serious progress from newcomers Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick, a rookie. A.J. Brown is a legit WR1, and Derrick Henry helps make play-action passing dangerous, but he is poised for a setback statistically and comes with inflated injury concern. Tannehill is being drafted ahead of Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and a handful of other quarterbacks with better risk-reward ratios. Some services place his ADP in the ninth round, which is too high, as well.

3) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants | ADP: 6:11 | Bust factor

The former Detroit Lion cashed in on one strong season — which wasn’t even last year — and a decent campaign the year before. He suffers a serious drop-off at quarterback by entering an offense led by Daniel Jones, a signal-caller coming off of a drastic regression in his second season. Jones is on thin ice, but who is going to replace him if the third-year passer doesn’t bounce back? Mike Glennon is the current answer, which should be startling. Golladay, with one full season to his credit, comes with more downside than likely reward.

4) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants | ADP: 10:11 | Overvalued

So he finally finished a full season and what did gamers get to show for it? One measly touchdown. Now, the Giants have improved the weaponry around Engram to make him even less of a focus, and the backfield should see a healthy Saquon Barkley’s return to gobble up checkdowns from the arm of a work-in-progress quarterback. While the cost of investment isn’t horrific, the number of better tight end options going later than Engram is nearly 10 players.

5) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 4:12 | Overvalued

Don’t get me wrong, Pitts is the top rookie tight end talent in recent memory. He is physically capable of doing things players at his position shouldn’t be capable of accomplishing. And he gets a huge boost in targets if Julio Jones is indeed out of Atlanta. That said, Pitts is still a rookie at a position that typically takes time to effectively contribute in fantasy. He is currently going as TE4 in redraft leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft. This excludes keeper leagues, so his placement is crazy high. Looking at the past decade of rookie tight ends to finish in the top 25 of PPR point-earners, history isn’t on his side for a monster year. The average stat line: 54 targets, 35 receptions, 401 yards, 3.6 touchdowns, 96.6 PPR points. Evan Engram’s 2017 season was by far the most productive, logging 64-722-6 on 115 looks (173.6 PPR points). The next four best PPR producers: Hunter Henry (131.8 points), Dwayne Allen (115.3), Jordan Reed (114.7) and Noah Fant (113.8). The average of those five: 129.8, which was TE17 last year.

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6) TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins | ADP: 9:05 | Overvalued

Historically, tight ends rarely have mattered in a Chan Gailey offense, and now the Dolphins have added a pair of playmaking receivers to interfere with Gesicki’s target count. The Penn State product picked up the pace late last year after a rocky start, but much of his success can be boiled down to three games, one of which came with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. While entering the final year of his deal could add some incentive, Gesicki still is reliant on a so-so quarterback situation in an offense that boasts no silver lining for his odds of a consistently useful campaign.

7) RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 8:05 | Bust factor

Between injury history, a pass-happy offense, and two other very capable running backs, Fournette could be a lineup paperweight in 2021. The ADP isn’t so much a problem, so it’s not like he presents an overreach, but there’s so much working against him. Fournette’s saving grace in recent seasons has been his receiving chops. Running back Giovani Bernard will cut into that area of his game, and then there’s the chance of losing short-yardage touchdowns to Ronald Jones, which kneecaps Fournette’s two main ways of contributing. Only two teams (PIT, JAC) ran at a lower percentage of their overall offensive snaps. At this point, Lombardi Lenny is merely roster depth for the occasional spot start.

8) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 5:03 | Overvalued

Some of his placement is still the proximity to the NFL draft and its natural hype effect on rookies. Face it, fantasy owners love themselves the newest shiny toy, and Chase is in that category. He hasn’t played since 2019, which is possibly benign, but it’s, at a minimum, not a plus. The Bengals have two other capable receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and Mixon is a respectable receiver out of the backfield. Chase is reunited with Joe Burrow (knee), so there’s that going for him, but he ultimately is a rookie and also has to fight the rust factor. The LSU standout eventually will be a fantasy stud, although there should be some healthy skepticism as to how effective he’ll be as a rookie — especially when the price tag is so lofty at this current time. Chase’s ADP ranges between Rounds 5 and 10 most of the time, which is bonkers. Anything earlier than Round 8 is way too soon in a single-year league.

9) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 5:06 | Overvalued

This one really could go either way, so take it with a grain of salt. The main idea of including Evans here is the wealth of targets around him. Presume Chris Godwin stays healthy all year, and Antonio Brown enters with a potential to play a full season, too. What will that do to Evans’ numbers? He thrived by finding the end zone a career-high 13 times last year. His yardage (1,006) and receptions (70) were the second-lowest marks of his career for each stat. Those dips were with Godwin and AB missing a combined 12 games. Rob Gronkowski also was slow to get rolling. The Bucs added pass-grabbing RB Giovani Bernard, and TE O.J. Howard returns from injury. The primary reason to hold out hope Evans will indeed reach his ADP in relation to production is his scoring prowess. He has, though, scored eight or fewer TDs in four of his seven seasons, so it’s not like Evans is a total lock for finding paydirt a dozen times.

10) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans | ADP: 8:02 | Bust factor

The obvious looming legal concerns have sent his draft stock tumbling, which is no surprise. Watson also wants out of town, further clouding his situation. Timing could very well be on his side, unless the NFL steps in to implement discipline ahead of the 20-plus impending lawsuits being adjudicated. There’s always the chance it all could be settled ahead of time, although it appears it all will be going to court in the fall. Presuming he plays, and for the Texans, Watson will be tasked with carrying the offense in a new system devoid of dynamic receivers, outside of veteran Brandin Cooks. The receiving corps has oft-injured Randall Cobb manning the slot, and veteran Chris Conley was added to compete with Keke Coutee for a top-three spot. Nico Collins comes aboard after being drafted in Round 3, and his 6-foot-5 frame presents a target in the red zone. Will Fuller’s defection leaves a glaring hole in this passing game: a consistent deep threat. Houston added running backs Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to work in alongside David Johnson, suggesting an increased emphasis on the ground game.

Greek wine 101: What it is and why you should be drinking it

Greek wine is having a moment. The diversity of the indigenous grapes, mountainous terroir and largely organic or natural winemaking techniques create bold tannins in reds and crisp, floral white wines to propel the category’s popularity stateside.

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Greek wine is having a moment. Take it from wine director – and Greek wine expert – Evan Turner at Krasi Meze and Wine in Boston, Massachusetts.

“Everybody is far more adventurous with wine, spirits and food,” says Turner. “Everyone wants to try something new and exciting, and to be on the cutting edge. That’s been great for Greek wine.”

Turner’s first brush with the country was over 40 years ago. To this day, he still recalls the vivid details, from conversations to aura, of his first meal in Greece.

Turner went on to train as a sommelier and established Helen Greek Food and Wine in Houston, Texas. Since opening in 2015, Turner’s witnessed an uprise in Greek wines, especially in restaurants with 100 percent Greek wine lists throughout the country – he mentions Taverna Khione and Emilitsa, both in Maine, Taxim in Chicago and Milos Wine Bar at Hudson Yards in New York City.

Turner says the majority of Greek labels that make it stateside – around 85 percent – are from producers that are no more than two decades old. He clarifies, however, that the earliest winemaking in Greece dates back 6,500 years.

“There are all these beautiful old vineyards sitting around in Greece,” says Turner, who explains that when the Ottomans invaded Greece, families were still allowed to make wine for their personal use, so farmers planted vineyards in their backyards.

These are the vineyards that still exist today; some vines are as old as 400 years. Turner elaborates that due to the isolation of these vineyards, the vines avoided the phylloxera outbreak in the 1800s, and thus preserved these “unbelievably old” vines that produce grapes rich in flavor and history.

Turner emphasizes that it’s these indigenous grapes, along with the terroir, that are responsible for Greek wine’s most recognizable qualities: high acid, high tannins and lower alcohol (the average ABV runs between 12.5 to 13.5 percent).

“Everybody thinks of Greece’s beaches and white houses with blue roofs, and it’s actually one of the most mountainous nations in the world, with a lot of their soils sandy and volcanic in nature,” says Turner. “To enumerate them, Greek wines tend to be less jammy and fruity – whether they’re reds or whites – and more about these wonderful secondary flavors of earthiness, minerality and herbaceousness.”

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As for what’s not in the wines, Turner explains that sugar is not added during the winemaking process, and new oak is used sparingly for aging, favoring stainless steel, used or “neutral” oak, instead. Wineries also tend to harvest early due to temperamental weather in the mountains, and in less volume, due to family-run constraints.

These minimalist techniques lend themselves to prominently natural, organic and biodynamic wines. The trending organic and biodynamic wine movement, therefore, creates a favorable opportunity in the market for Greek wine, in addition to the ongoing acceptance of orange wines. Turner says it’s these two movements, as well as the ability of sommeliers to exhibit the wines to customers, which will permit the category to thrive.

“It’s not a question of the quality of the wines, it’s a matter of getting them into customers’ hands,” emphasizes Marc Provencher, owner of Taverna Khione in Brunswick, Maine. “Most people who come in do not know about Greek wines or the grapes. It’s all about educating them.”

Education is especially important surrounding the grape varieties, with tongue-twisting nomenclature, like assyrtiko, aidani, limniona and moschofilero. Whether you’re a first-time consumer of these wines and unable to pronounce them or perhaps visited Greece and enjoyed a variety but don’t recall the label, Provencher suggests this difficulty as one of the hurdles for the category to overcome.

“If you have a wine that you like and cannot pronounce the name of the grape, you’re probably not going to remember it for the next time,” says Provencher.

When it comes to educating diners at Krasi, Turner’s method is to relate the wines to familiar varieties. For white wines, Turner likens the crisp minerality of Santorini’s assyrtiko to “the child of a stunning Sancerre and a bone-dry riesling.” Malagouzia, from northern Greece, is a richer, rounder variety that presents tropical notes and stone fruit on the nose and palate, similar to viognier.

Moschofilero from the Peloponnese (one of the coldest growing climates in all of Greece) is aromatically floral, like a white blend from Alsace, where you get notes of gardenia, jasmine, cinnamon and clove on the nose, but on the palate is bright and clean with a dry finish.

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As for reds, agiorgitiko (originally from the south) is the most widely planted Greek red grape, frequently blended with Bordeaux varietals; its light to dark cherry notes draw comparisons to Chianti classico or Rioja reserva.

“It’s a great red wine to give to someone if they’ve never had Greek reds because it’ll feel the most familiar,” explains Turner.

Limniona, from just south of Mount Olympus, is reminiscent of an earthy pinot noir from Oregon. Lastly, xinomavro frequently gets compared to nebbiolo for its high acidity and tannins that Turner says “pairs gloriously with long-cooked meat dishes you so frequently see in Greece.”

In fact, Turner advises that all Greek varieties allow for exceptional pairings due to the meze style of cuisine the country is renowned for. “Greek wine has the greatest affability to food of any country,” says Turner. “Greek cuisine in general was never a one-plate, one-course meal, we pile stuff in the middle; so you’d want to make wines for that!”

As Greek wines continue to garner popularity in the United States, back in Greece, Turner hopes to see more oenotourism throughout the country. The Peloponnese currently draws the most attention for wine aficionados, but Santorini, Nemera and Crete are also authoritative starting points to a self-guided tour.

Turner predicts the eruption of wineries from lesser-known regions of Greece to continue to revolutionize the category.

He concludes, “Using rare indigenous grapes, from various far-flung areas across both the islands and the mainland, these wineries are at the vanguard of new Greek winemaking. They are the future.”

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