The 2021 NBA Draft, the highlight of the NBA offseason, kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. ET. This year, it will be held at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., and can be seen on ABC and ESPN. Below, we look at the odds for the 2021 NBA Draft and make our best NBA picks and predictions.
Entering this draft, there’s only one pick that feels guaranteed and that’s former Oklahoma State G Cade Cunningham at No. 1, with the Detroit Pistons holding the rights to the top selection. The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers round out the top three.
For betting purposes, the middle of the lottery will be very interesting. Players like G James Bouknight are seeing their stock rise while SG Moses Moody could fall.
That said, let’s dive into our five favorite prop bets for the 2021 NBA Draft.
2021 NBA Draft odds and picks
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
USC C Evan Mobley to be pick No. 3 (-275)
Mobley is the second-best prospect in the NBA Draft, but he won’t go No. 2.
In a league that is giving more and more power to players, Mobley has shown his disinterest in Houston by not working out for the franchise. At the same time, G Jalen Green is reportedly considered a “lock” at No. 2.
There’s no way the Cavaliers pass on a 7-footer who can shoot, pass and protect the rim. Mobley is the real deal, but with C Christian Wood in Houston and a clear distaste from the USC product to head to Texas, Mobley at No. 3 seems like a surefire pick.
With Green to be the No. 2 pick at -400, this provides much better value.
Gonzaga G Jalen Suggs to be pick No. 4 (-200)
The Toronto Raptors are “overwhelmingly” expected to go with Suggs at No. 4, according to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony.
The gritty, two-way guard that dominated at Gonzaga is the last of the top-tier prospects. Unless there’s a shake-up at the top of the board, Toronto will be picking Suggs at No. 4.
An athletic 6-foot-4, Suggs averaged 14.4 points per game as a freshman and was the West Coast Conference Touney MVP among many other accolades he received in his sole collegiate season.
This is great value for Suggs as Toronto is braced to potentially lose PG Kyle Lowry this offseason.
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Baylor PG Davion Mitchell to go Over 12.5 (+100)
While Mitchell has NBA-ready potential, the ceiling for the 22-year-old is such that he could easily fall outside of the top 12. There are a few reasons to bet on Mitchell to drop.
One is his potential. Mitchell’s age is a huge red flag. Teams are in the lottery rebuild and should want high-ceiling prospects like SF Franz Wagner, Moody and SG Keon Johnson.
Typically that 18-22 range is when most of the improvement sets in, and Mitchell has already aged through that. He’s still a solid pick, just not in the top 12. Now, 13 or 14 is where he should go, to the Indiana Pacers or Golden State Warriors, respectively.
On top of his age, Mitchell’s height at 6-foot-2 could be a problem for teams. Lastly, he went from being a 32.4% 3-point shooter in his sophomore season to around 44/7% as a junior.
Is that sustainable? I’d be questioning that, especially with the longer 3-point line.
Also, The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor said on The Mismatch podcast, via NBC Sports: “I’ve been told that the Warriors believe Mitchell could be available at No. 14 — their second first-round draft pick.”
Until No. 13, Mitchell doesn’t make much sense, making this a bet I’d gladly place a unit on.
LSU G Cameron Thomas to go Over 22.5 (+100)
Thomas has the potential to be an absolute stud in the NBA. At LSU, he proved to be one of college basketball’s most elite scorers, averaging 23.0 points per game.
At 6-foot-4, he offers good size, but his efficiency is a huge problem. It’s an issue that could see him fall, as is expected with the inefficient SF Jonathan Kuminga to drop outside the top seven. In mock drafts, Thomas is typically dipping past 22 and going to the Denver Nuggets at 26.
With players like Moody and Johnson potentially falling into the late-teens, Thomas may be a player taken at the end of the first round, especially with international prospects like PF Usman Garuba flying up draft boards.
Feel comfortable betting Thomas to drop past the No. 22 pick.
Kentucky C Isaiah Jackson to go Over 20.5 (-120)
While Jackson could be an elite rim-rolling big man, going outside of the top-20 picks is a bet I’m willing to take. Most teams have been able to get players like Jackson later in the draft.
Take Brooklyn Nets PF Nicolas Claxton for example. The 6-foot-11 forward had better collegiate numbers than Jackson and went with the first pick of the second round in 2019.
After Kentucky’s pitiful season, Jackson should be expected to fall. The Rookie Wire‘s latest mock draft has him going at No. 26 to the Nuggets.
Either way, 18 seems far too high for a player without a polished offensive game or really the clear potential to become a competent playmaker.
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