After my last mock draft, I received an e-mail from an aggrieved reader who was upset that I didn’t have Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert in the first round at all. As I said to the reader, and as I pointed out in the introduction to that mock, the only quarterback I have firm first-round grades on in this class are Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Herbert simply has too many dings in his game — accuracy, the consistency of his throws on the move, and his ability to process second and third reads — for me to navigate.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Herbert won’t go in the first round, even if every personnel person in the NFL agreed with me, which I’m sure they don’t. Herbert is a quarterback, and because of that, he will unquestionably be selected higher than his talent grades may indicate. He’s a big guy with a big arm, which is more than enough for a lot of general managers, coaches, and scouts.
Now that I’ve sorted that out, here’s another proposition that will likely anger a lot of people: What if the Bengals are willing to trade out of the first overall pick, and thus the lead-pipe path to LSU quarterback Joe Burrow? Anything is possible, and given that the Dolphins have three first-round picks, what if they were able to pry that first overall pick loose with the fifth and 18th overall picks, as well as one or both of their second-round picks (38th and 56th overall)? Let’s say the Dolphins aren’t as entranced with Herbert and/or Tua, or they love Burrow so much, they’re willing to move heaven and earth to get him.
Here’s what such a draft might look like, with the proviso that some quarterbacks (not just Herbert) could be overdrafted based on positional value as opposed to athletic potential.
1. Miami Dolphins (from Cincinnati Bengals): Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
New Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey (who was also the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator in 2000 and 2001) has a long history of getting the best out of average quarterbacks. Gailey won’t have that problem in this hypothetical scenario, as he’ll have the benefit of the best quarterback — and the best player — in this draft class. Throw out all the “one-year wonder” stuff about Burrow — in 2019, he proved to be a quarterback of rare production, consistency, and nuance. Imagine a healthy version of the Sam Bradford that came out of Oklahoma in 2010 as the first overall pick, and you’ll have an idea when it comes to Burrow’s combination of mobility, velocity, and accuracy. And Miami gets its first true franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired in 1999.
2. Washington Redskins: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Yes, the obvious pick here is to give Ohio State edge-rusher Chase Young to the Redskins, and all signs point in that direction. But this is a team that released Josh Norman and mysteriously traded Quinton Dunbar, one of the 15 best cornerbacks in the NFL last season, to the Seahawks for a fifth-round pick. We have no idea why, but Washington needs cornerbacks more than it needs edge rushers right now, and Okudah is the one scheme-transcendent, lockdown cornerback in this draft class. Last season, he allowed an opponent passer rating of 45.3, with 27 catches allowed on 58 targets for 282 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
3. Detroit Lions: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Washington picking Jeff Okudah gives the Lions an interesting choice with the third pick, though Matt Patricia needs cornerbacks right now just as much as Ron Rivera does. After trading Darius Slay to the Eagles for a pittance, Detroit has Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman as its primary players at that position. Either Patricia and the rest of Detroit’s draft room will have to over-pick a defensive back, trade down, or take Chase Young and make the pass rush a whole lot better. Young would do that — he has nearly every attribute required to play his position at the highest level, and even during the three-game sackless streak at the end of his collegiate career, he was still making and preventing plays.
4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, Defense, Clemson
The Giants signed former Packers linebackers Blake Martinez and Kyle Fackrell in the 2020 offseason, but given the lack of talent Big Blue had at the position last season, and given Martinez’s and Fackrell’s limitations, it wouldn’t be unwise for general manager Dave Gettleman to go back to the linebacker well with the fourth overall pick. Not that Simmons is just a linebacker — in 2019, he played 299 snaps in the box, 262 snaps at slot cornerback, 132 snaps at free safety, and 116 snaps at defensive line. He did it all at a very high level, and he would plug in nicely in all those spots for the Giants, because the Giants have needs for talent in all those spots.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (from Miami Dolphins): Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
The Bengals could trade out of the top spot and still select their ostensible future franchise quarterback in the person of Herbert or Tagovailoa, and I’m imagining there are NFL front offices in which that’s a relative coin flip. At 6-foot-6, 236 pounds, and possessing an absolute hose of an arm, Herbert checks a lot of the boxes many personnel people want. The positive side with Herbert is going to be the belief that his dings — inconsistent short passes, iffy throws on the move, and a developmental level of reading the field — can be corrected. It’s a big risk, but you can bet some team’s going to take it. For Bengals head coach and offensive play-designer Zac Taylor, Herbert would be a step up from Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley, such as it is.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
All indications point to Tagovailoa entering the draft with a clean bill of health, though worldly concerns obviously prevent him from working out for teams in person. If he is healthy, Tagovailoa would present an interesting move forward from the Philip Rivers era. Yes, Tyrod Taylor is a decent starter with experience in head coach Anthony Lynn’s offense from their time in Buffalo. But Taylor doesn’t have Tagovailoa’s accuracy or anticipation, nor his ability to carve up blitzes or throw deep with efficiency (he was 19 of 39 with nine touchdowns and no interceptions on passes of 20 air yards or more last season, per Pro Football Focus). Taylor is a great placeholder; Tagovailoa is a future franchise quarterback. The Chargers should be happy to spot the difference here.
7. Carolina Panthers: Javon Kinlaw, DI, South Carolina
In 2019, the Panthers ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Adjusted Line Yards metric, which points to the specific weakness of their run defense. Losing Luke Kuechly to retirement certainly doesn’t help, but the real problem is a super-thin defensive tackle group. Kinlaw, who excelled through the 2019 season and tore it up at the Senior Bowl before shutting it down with a minor knee issue, would do a lot to correct that. At 6-foot-6 and 309 pounds, he has the ability to disrupt and prevent big plays from any gap along the line, though he’s primarily a top-shelf interior wrecker. Once he gets NFL-level coaching and learns to use his hands, watch out.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
The Cardinals may be thinking the trade for DeAndre Hopkins was some sort of vivid dream, but the Texans did actually let them perform that particular bit of larceny. Now that Kyler Murray has another legitimate No. 1 receiver to pair with Larry FItzgerald, it’s time to protect Murray’s blind side a bit better. D.J. Humphries did a decent job with that in 2019, allowing two sacks and 30 total pressures on 677 pass-blocking snaps, but adding Thomas to the equation would allow Humphries to kick to right tackle, and Arizona would have a very nice pair of plus-level pass-blockers. From there, it’s easy to project Murray as the NFL’s next breakout quarterback.