5. Boise State can win if…
Press the advantage early on. Boise State has to make this a grind out affair on both sides of the ball and force their will on the Warriors. Boise State is the better team and they are at home so they have to play smart and take their shots and grind out a home a victory.
The Broncos win by leaning in on their rushing attack and keeping Hawaii’s offense off the field. Run the ball and slow down the game and bleed clock and on defense clamping down on Hawaii’s wide receivers.
Sean O’Toole
Stick to what has gotten them here. If they just play their game, they have a personnel advantage at nearly every position on the field. And its fairly significant in some areas. A physical display of the Broncos game is fair to be expected.
Contain Cole McDonald and capitalize on mistakes. Their defense can be suspect, but the Boise State offense is potent enough to repeat a 50+ point performance.
They do what they’ve done all season. They can’t be looking past this game, as Hawaii isn’t a pushover. But they definitely have the ability to shoot out early, and keep the lead.
Boise State can win if they keep the ball out of Hawaii’s hands for 35 minutes.
Boise State can win if they win the turnover battle. They did that handily the first time around, of course, and while Hawaii has mostly cleaned that up down the stretch, they’re still prone to bad decisions here and there (most recently with Chevan Cordeiro’s two early interceptions against UNLV). The offense will also need to be prepared, though, since the Warriors have created multiple turnovers in four of their last six games.
Replicate the prior game? The Broncos exploited a weak Hawaii secondary for those five touchdowns. Assuming Jaylen Henderson starts it will be the first time he has seen a team twice as he saw action the last time the two played. George Holani and the running game need to have a better outcome to mix things up on offense.
The defense needs to pressure the quarterback. That unit had zero sacks and no quarterback pressures. Creating a few picks is the easiest way for Boise State to win.
Boise can win if they can pounce early and force Hawaii into making risky decisions with the football. BSU has no problems pounding the rock and protecting a lead once the game is in hand. If the Broncos lead by a healthy margin at halftime, McDonald is as likely to toss interceptions as he is to lead a massive comeback.
Boise just needs to play their game and try not to get too cute to walk away with the MW Championship
They execute how they are capable. They have had a lot of games that were closer than they should have been simply because one phase of their game simply could not get it together. If they hit on all cylinders, this will be a one sided game.