7. Nebraska at Wisconsin
LINE Wisconsin -9
ATS PICK Wisconsin
My job is to give you all of the information, and then you do with it what you must.
Here’s why this pick is scary. Nebraska’s run defense has been fantastic.
Michigan is the only team to get to 200 yards, it’s allowing 3.7 yards per carry, and despite the numbers lately, bad things happen if Wisconsin has to throw.
Also, Nebraska plays just about every game close. It always loses, but it managed to give Ohio State a fight in a nine-point loss, and that was the largest margin of defeat this year.
Throw in the two weeks off, the no pressure factor with Scott Frost’s situation settled and with a losing season locked in, and go ahead and freak out about the paper-thin Wisconsin running back situation. It’s uh-oh time if super-frosh Braelon Allen goes down.
All that, and …
Wisconsin’s defense continues to play at a historic level of greatness.
As I’ve mentioned before, you have to go back to 2011 Alabama for the last time anyone flirted with going through a season allowing fewer than 250 yards per game – Bama was under 200 that year, by the way – and Wisconsin is allowing 216 per outing.
Ever since the loss to Michigan, Wisconsin has won its last six games by a score of 186-34 – an average of 31-6.
Nebraska hasn’t beaten Wisconsin since 2012.
– Week 12 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
6. Illinois at Iowa
LINE Iowa -12
ATS PICK Illinois
Let’s start with this belief, and go the other way if you disagree.
A team not having its coach around for a game doesn’t really matter, and if anything, it’s a plus. The team seems to come in more focused.
The work is done during the week, and for a one or two game shot the assistants can get the job done. However, a missing coach – Illinois’ Bret Bielema is in the COVID protocol – appears to be worth two points here.
Iowa might have found something in QB Alex Padilla – there was an actual downfield pass in the win over Minnesota – but this is still the worst offense in the Big Ten averaging fewer than 300 yards per game.
Iowa isn’t into that whole scoring thing.
The 27 put up against Minnesota were the most since early October, but this O is more likely to hang around 17 against Illinois unless the D comes up with a slew of takeaways.
Illinois leads the Big Ten in fewest giveaways.
No one grinds games down like the Illini. The team might not be great, but Wisconsin and Virginia are the only two teams to beat it by more than 12.
The point total is 38 for a reason. If everything holds to form, this is being played in the teens.